795
ACUS02 KWNS 081728
SWODY2
SPC AC 081726
DAY 2 CONVECTIVE OUTLOOK
NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK
1226 PM CDT MON SEP 08 2025
VALID 091200Z - 101200Z
...THERE IS A MARGINAL RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS ACROSS PORTIONS
OF THE CENTRAL AND SOUTHERN HIGH PLAINS...
..SUMMARY
ISOLATED SEVERE STORMS ARE POSSIBLE OVER THE CENTRAL AND SOUTHERN
HIGH PLAINS TUESDAY.
..SYNOPSIS
A BROAD UPPER-LEVEL LOW WILL REMAIN ACROSS THE PACIFIC NORTHWEST ON
D2/TUESDAY, WITH RIDGING ACROSS THE ROCKIES IN THE CENTRAL US.
EMBEDDED MID-LEVEL DISTURBANCES CRESTING THE RIDGE WILL BRING WEST
TO NORTHWESTERLY FLOW ACROSS THE ROCKIES INTO THE PLAINS, PROMOTING
STRENGTHENING OF THE LEE TROUGH AND DEVELOPMENT OF WEAK LOW PRESSURE
ACROSS EASTERN COLORADO. WEAK FORCING FROM THE LOW/LEE TROUGH WILL
SUPPORT THUNDERSTORM DEVELOPMENT ACROSS THE CENTRAL AND SOUTHERN
HIGH PLAINS, WITH A FEW STRONG TO SEVERE STORMS POSSIBLE ACROSS
WESTERN KANSAS SOUTHWARD TO THE TEXAS PANHANDLE.
..CENTRAL AND SOUTHERN HIGH PLAINS
OVERALL FORCING FOR ASCENT WILL REMAIN WEAK ACROSS THE
CENTRAL/SOUTHERN HIGH PLAINS BENEATH THE UPPER RIDGE TUESDAY.
MID-LEVEL FLOW WILL BE INCREASING THROUGH THE DAY, WITH A
STRENGTHENING SOUTHERLY LOW-LEVEL JET PROGGED TO DEVELOP BY LATE
AFTERNOON/EVENING. GIVEN THE RIDGING ALOFT AND WEAK FORCING THERE IS
SOME UNCERTAINTY TO HOW MUCH CONVECTION CAN DEVELOP AND BE
SUSTAINED.
NONETHELESS, CAMS DO SUGGEST SOME ISOLATED TO SCATTERED CONVECTION
ARE POSSIBLE ACROSS THE HIGH TERRAIN IN COLORADO/WYOMING AND INTO
THE OKLAHOMA/TEXAS PANHANDLES BY LATE AFTERNOON. DAYTIME HEATING OF
A SEASONABLY MOIST AIR MASS SHOULD YIELD MLCAPE AROUND 1000-2500
J/KG. DEEP LAYER SHEAR AROUND 30-35 KTS WILL INCREASE THROUGH THE
EVENING WITH THE LOW-LEVEL JET, WITH ELONGATED STRAIGHT HODOGRAPHS
EXTENDING ACROSS MUCH OF WESTERN KANSAS INTO THE OK/TX PANHANDLES.
SUFFICIENT DEEP LAYER SHEAR AND STEEP LOW TO MID-LEVEL LAPSE RATES
OVERSPREADING THIS REGION COULD SUPPORT POTENTIAL FOR SUPERCELLS,
WITH A CONDITIONAL RISK FOR LARGE TO VERY LARGE HAIL AND DAMAGING
WIND SHOULD A STORM BE ABLE TO SUSTAIN. GIVEN SOME UNCERTAINTY ON
COVERAGE AND SUSTAINED SUPERCELLS, A MARGINAL RISK WAS MAINTAINED
AND EXTENDED EASTWARD ACROSS MORE OF WESTERN OKLAHOMA.
..UPPER MIDWEST
A BOUNDARY EXTENDING FROM CENTRAL IOWA INTO THE DAKOTAS WILL SUPPORT
ISOLATED TO SCATTERED THUNDERSTORM DEVELOPMENT TUESDAY AFTERNOON.
THE AIR MASS SOUTH OF THIS FEATURE WILL BE MODESTLY
SHEARED/UNSTABLE. THUNDERSTORM DEVELOPMENT APPEARS TO BE MAINLY
ALONG AND ON THE COOL SIDE OF THIS BOUNDARY CAPABLE OF SMALL HAIL
AND GUSTY WINDS. WITHIN THIS REGION, A STRONGER STORM OR TWO MAY
DEVELOP BUT THE OVERALL SEVERE THREAT APPEARS LOW.
..THORNTON.. 09/08/2025
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