104
ACUS03 KWNS 081914
SWODY3
SPC AC 081913
DAY 3 CONVECTIVE OUTLOOK
NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK
0213 PM CDT MON SEP 08 2025
VALID 101200Z - 111200Z
..NO SEVERE THUNDERSTORM AREAS FORECAST
..SUMMARY
SCATTERED SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS ARE POSSIBLE OVER PARTS OF THE
NORTHWEST, NORTHERN ROCKIES AND HIGH PLAINS WEDNESDAY. A STRONGER
STORM OR TWO IS POSSIBLE, BUT SEVERE POTENTIAL IS LOW.
..SYNOPSIS
LONG-WAVE TROUGHING WILL DEEPEN ACROSS THE WESTERN US ON WEDNESDAY,
WITH HEIGHTS INCREASING IN THE CENTRAL US RIDGE. A BELT OF ENHANCED
SOUTHWESTERLY FLOW ALOFT WILL MOVE ACROSS THE GREAT BASIN INTO
WYOMING AND MONTANA THROUGH THE PERIOD. WIDELY SCATTERED
THUNDERSTORM DEVELOPMENT IS EXPECTED ACROSS THE PACIFIC NORTHWEST
INTO THE NORTHERN ROCKIES AND CENTRAL/NORTHERN PLAINS. ADDITIONAL
THUNDERSTORMS WILL BE POSSIBLE ALONG THE GULF COAST.
..NORTHERN AND CENTRAL HIGH PLAINS
AS SOUTHWESTERLY FLOW OVERSPREADS THE NORTHERN ROCKIES, A SURFACE
LOW IS PROGGED TO DEVELOP ACROSS EASTERN MONTANA. MOISTURE TRANSPORT
WILL INCREASE WITH MASS RESPONSE WITH DEW POINTS IN THE LOW TO MID
60S SPREADING ACROSS THE DAKOTAS INTO EASTERN MONTANA. OWING TO THE
STRENGTHENING RIDGE, MOSTLY SUNNY SKIES ARE PROGGED ACROSS MUCH OF
THE CENTRAL/HIGH PLAINS. THIS SHOULD PROMOTE STRONG DAYTIME HEATING
AND MODERATE INSTABILITY ACROSS PORTIONS OF NEBRASKA INTO THE
DAKOTAS. AS STRONG MLCIN WILL ALSO BE OVER THE REGION, IT IS
UNCERTAIN HOW MANY THUNDERSTORMS WILL DEVELOP GIVEN RELATIVELY WEAK
FORCING. GRADUAL COOLING FROM THE ADVANCING MID-LEVEL TROUGH SHOULD
AID IN EROSION OF MLCIN THROUGH TIME, WITH AT LEAST ISOLATED
THUNDERSTORMS CAPABLE OF STRONG TO SEVERE WIND POSSIBLE ACROSS THE
BLACK HILLS OR ALONG THE LEE TROUGH INTO EASTERN WY. FOR NOW, THIS
THREAT REMAINS TOO UNCERTAIN TO INCLUDE PROBABILITIES.
..NORTHWEST AND NORTHERN ROCKIES
THE WESTERN TROUGH WILL SUPPORT WIDELY SCATTERED THUNDERSTORM
DEVELOPMENT ACROSS MUCH OF THE PACIFIC NORTHWEST INTO THE NORTHERN
ROCKIES. MODEST MOISTURE AND SUFFICIENT DEEP LAYER SHEAR AMID STEEP
LOW TO MID-LEVEL LAPSE RATES MAY SUPPORT SOME INSTANCES OF STRONG TO
SEVERE WIND. HOWEVER, LARGELY MERIDIONAL FLOW ALOFT, REMNANT CLOUD
COVER, AND MLCAPE GENERALLY LESS THAN 500 J/KG SUGGEST ORGANIZED
SEVERE POTENTIAL SHOULD REMAIN LIMITED.
..THORNTON.. 09/08/2025
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