125
ACUS01 KWNS 081959
SWODY1
SPC AC 081958
DAY 1 CONVECTIVE OUTLOOK
NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK
0258 PM CDT MON SEP 08 2025
VALID 082000Z - 091200Z
...THERE IS A SLIGHT RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS FROM PARTS OF
SOUTHWEST KANSAS INTO THE EASTERN TEXAS PANHANDLE...
..SUMMARY
ISOLATED LARGE HAIL AND GUSTY WINDS ARE FORECAST OVER PORTIONS OF
SOUTHWESTERN KANSAS, NORTHWEST OKLAHOMA, AND THE TEXAS PANHANDLE
LATE THIS AFTERNOON INTO THE EVENING.
..20Z UPDATE
NO CHANGES WERE MADE TO THE DAY 1 OUTLOOK WITH THIS UPDATE. BOTH
TIMING OF THE SEVERE RISK AND STORM COVERAGE/EVOLUTION REMAIN
UNCERTAIN IN THE SOUTHERN PLAINS, GIVEN WEAK/MINIMAL LARGE-SCALE
FORCING AND ONLY SUBTLE ZONES OF MESOSCALE LIFT. THE LATEST SURFACE
ANALYSIS SHOWS A WEAK SURFACE BOUNDARY/WIND SHIFT EXTENDING FROM FAR
SOUTHEAST CO SOUTH-SOUTHWESTWARD ACROSS THE WESTERN OK PANHANDLE
INTO THE FAR NORTHWESTERN TX PANHANDLE. THIS BOUNDARY MAY MOVE
SLOWLY SOUTHEASTWARD THIS EVENING AND AID IN ISOLATED THUNDERSTORM
DEVELOPMENT AS THE LOW-LEVEL JET STRENGTHENS. ISOLATED STORMS COULD
ALSO FORM IN RESPONSE TO DIFFERENTIAL HEATING ALONG THE SOUTHERN
EDGE OF OUTFLOW MOVING SOUTHWARD ACROSS SOUTHWEST KS. REGARDLESS, A
LONG/MOSTLY STRAIGHT HODOGRAPH (AROUND 40 KT OF EFFECTIVE SHEAR) AND
MODERATE SURFACE-BASED BUOYANCY WILL CONDITIONALLY SUPPORT SPLITTING
SUPERCELLS WITH A RISK OF LARGE HAIL AND LOCALLY SEVERE GUSTS.
..WEINMAN.. 09/08/2025
PREV DISCUSSION
/ISSUED 1113 AM CDT MON SEP 08 2025/
..TX/OK/KS
NORTHWEST FLOW PERSISTS OVER THE PLAINS STATES TODAY, WITH A
SHORTWAVE TROUGH PROGRESSING SLOWLY SOUTHEASTWARD ACROSS REGION.
THIS FEATURE HAS RESULTED IN OVERNIGHT AND CONTINUING
CLOUDS/CONVECTION FROM NORTHEAST KS INTO THE EASTERN TX PANHANDLE.
THESE STORMS HAVE OCCASIONALLY POSED A RISK OF SEVERE HAIL. AS THIS
ACTIVITY DRIFTS EASTWARD THIS AFTERNOON, STRONG HEATING ON THE
WESTERN FLANK OF THE CLOUDS, ALONG WITH A WEAK RESIDUAL BOUNDARY
OVER SOUTHWEST KS/NORTHWEST OK, COULD PROVIDE THE FOCUS FOR ISOLATED
SUPERCELL THUNDERSTORMS. 12Z MODEL GUIDANCE VARIES CONSIDERABLY ON
THE COVERAGE OF STORMS, LENDING UNCERTAINTY TO THE OVERALL THREAT.
HOWEVER, FORECAST SOUNDINGS SHOW AMPLE UNCAPPED CAPE AND SUFFICIENT
LOW/DEEP LAYER SHEAR FOR ROTATING STORMS CAPABLE OF LARGE HAIL.
THEREFORE HAVE MADE VERY FEW CHANGES TO THE ONGOING OUTLOOK.
..MN
STRONG HEATING WILL OCCUR THIS AFTERNOON ACROSS THE EASTERN DAKOTAS
AND CENTRAL MN, WHERE A PLUME OF 1000-2000 J/KG OF CAPE WILL
DEVELOP. MODEL GUIDANCE CONTINUES TO DECREASE IN OVERALL COVERAGE
OF CONVECTION OVER WESTERN MN, AND FORECAST SOUNDINGS SUGGEST A CAP
AND WEAK FORCING ARE CONTRIBUTING TO THIS TREND. FOR THESE REASONS,
HAVE TRIMMED THE SOUTHWEST PORTION OF THE MRGL. A STRONG STORM OR
TWO CAPABLE OF HAIL REMAINS POSSIBLE OVER CENTRAL/NORTHEAST MN THIS
EVENING OR TONIGHT.
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