113
ACUS11 KWNS 082054
SWOMCD
SPC MCD 082053
OKZ000-KSZ000-TXZ000-COZ000-082300-
MESOSCALE DISCUSSION 2049
NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK
0353 PM CDT MON SEP 08 2025
AREAS AFFECTED...PARTS OF SOUTHWEST KS...NORTHWEST OK...OK/TX
PANHANDLES
CONCERNING...SEVERE POTENTIAL...WATCH POSSIBLE
VALID 082053Z - 082300Z
PROBABILITY OF WATCH ISSUANCE...60 PERCENT
SUMMARY...COVERAGE IS UNCERTAIN, BUT ISOLATED SEVERE STORM
DEVELOPMENT MAY OCCUR BY 5-7 PM CDT. WATCH ISSUANCE IS POSSIBLE.
DISCUSSION...TO THE EAST OF A SURFACE TROUGH AND WEST/SOUTH OF
REMNANT OUTFLOW, A CONDITIONALLY FAVORABLE SEVERE-STORM ENVIRONMENT
HAS EVOLVED THIS AFTERNOON FROM SOUTHWEST KS INTO THE OK/TX
PANHANDLES. DIURNAL HEATING OF A MOIST AIRMASS HAS RESULTED IN
MODERATE TO LOCALLY STRONG DESTABILIZATION, WITH MLCAPE NOW IN THE
2000-3000 J/KG RANGE PER RECENT MESOANALYSES. ACROSS THIS REGION,
MODEST MIDLEVEL NORTHWESTERLY FLOW ATOP LOW-LEVEL SOUTHERLIES IS
SUPPORTING ELONGATED HODOGRAPHS AND EFFECTIVE SHEAR OF 30-40 KT,
SUFFICIENT FOR ORGANIZED STORMS, INCLUDING SUPERCELL POTENTIAL.
DETAILS OF STORM COVERAGE AND TIMING WITHIN THIS FAVORABLE
ENVIRONMENT REMAIN UNCERTAIN, WITH GENERALLY MODEST LARGE-SCALE
ASCENT ACROSS THE REGION. HOWEVER, GIVEN THE PRESENCE OF MULTIPLE
SURFACE BOUNDARIES WITHIN AN UNCAPPED ENVIRONMENT, AT LEAST ISOLATED
STORM DEVELOPMENT IS POSSIBLE BY 5-7 PM CDT. DEVELOPMENT MAY OCCUR
AS FAR WEST AS EXTREME SOUTHWEST KS INTO THE WESTERN OK/TX
PANHANDLES, IN THE VICINITY OF THE WEAK SURFACE TROUGH. THERE IS A
SOMEWHAT STRONGER (THOUGH STILL UNCERTAIN) SIGNAL FOR DEVELOPMENT
ACROSS THE OK/NORTHEAST TX PANHANDLES INTO ADJACENT SOUTHWEST KS, IN
CLOSER PROXIMITY TO THE REMNANT OUTFLOW, WHERE A GRADUALLY
STRENGTHENING LOW-LEVEL JET MAY SUSTAIN SEVERE-STORM POTENTIAL INTO
THE EVENING.
SHOULD ROBUST DEVELOPMENT OCCUR, SPLITTING SUPERCELLS WILL BE
POSSIBLE, WITH A PRIMARY THREAT OF LARGE TO VERY LARGE HAIL AND
LOCALIZED SEVERE GUSTS. A TORNADO CANNOT BE RULED OUT IF ANY
SUPERCELLS CAN BE SUSTAINED NEAR THE REMNANT OUTFLOW, ESPECIALLY AS
LOW-LEVEL SHEAR/SRH INCREASES WITH TIME EARLY THIS EVENING. WATCH
ISSUANCE IS POSSIBLE IF CONFIDENCE INCREASES IN THE DEVELOPMENT OF
ONE OR MORE SUSTAINED SUPERCELLS INTO THE EARLY EVENING.
..DEAN/HART.. 09/08/2025
..PLEASE SEE WWW.SPC.NOAA.GOV FOR GRAPHIC PRODUCT
ATTN...WFO...OUN...DDC...GLD...AMA...PUB...
LAT...LON 36720233 37860139 38860094 38880037 38899970 36949911
36159948 35329992 35290091 35730219 36320290 36720233
MOST PROBABLE PEAK TORNADO INTENSITY...85-115 MPH
MOST PROBABLE PEAK WIND GUST...55-70 MPH
MOST PROBABLE PEAK HAIL SIZE...1.50-2.50 IN
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