168
ACUS01 KWNS 090525
SWODY1
SPC AC 090524
DAY 1 CONVECTIVE OUTLOOK
NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK
1224 AM CDT TUE SEP 09 2025
VALID 091200Z - 101200Z
...THERE IS A MARGINAL RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS ACROSS PORTIONS
OF THE CENTRAL AND SOUTHERN HIGH PLAINS...
..SUMMARY
ISOLATED SEVERE STORMS ARE POSSIBLE OVER THE CENTRAL AND SOUTHERN
HIGH PLAINS LATE THIS AFTERNOON AND EVENING.
..CENTRAL/SOUTHERN HIGH PLAINS
UPPER RIDGE, CURRENTLY LOCATED OVER THE ROCKIES, WILL GRADUALLY
SHIFT INTO THE HIGH PLAINS DURING THE LATTER HALF OF THE PERIOD.
THIS FLOW REGIME WILL ENCOURAGE LEE TROUGHING ACROSS THE
CENTRAL/SOUTHERN HIGH PLAINS, AND A NOCTURNAL LLJ IS ALSO EXPECTED
ACROSS THE TX PANHANDLE INTO WESTERN KS. IN THE ABSENCE OF
MEANINGFUL SHORT WAVES, STRONG BOUNDARY-LAYER HEATING WILL PROVE
INSTRUMENTAL IN CONVECTIVE DEVELOPMENT AS WEAK HEIGHT RISES ARE
NOTED ACROSS THE PLAINS. LATEST MODEL GUIDANCE SUGGESTS CONVECTIVE
TEMPERATURES WILL BE BREACHED BETWEEN 21-23Z AS SURFACE READINGS
CLIMB THROUGH THE UPPER 80S TO NEAR 90F FROM WEST TX INTO EASTERN
CO. WHILE THUNDERSTORMS MAY BE DELAYED OVER THE PLAINS UNTIL LATE
AFTERNOON, SCATTERED CONVECTION SHOULD READILY DEVELOP OVER THE
HIGHER TERRAIN BY MID AFTERNOON. SOME OF THIS ACTIVITY WILL SPREAD
TOWARD LOWER ELEVATIONS WHERE FAVORABLE LOW-LEVEL CONVERGENCE IS
EXPECTED TO AID AT LEAST A FEW STRONG-SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS. WHILE
DEEP-LAYER SHEAR IS NOT FORECAST TO BE PARTICULARLY STRONG, ADEQUATE
FLOW IS EXPECTED TO SUPPORT SOME ORGANIZATION. EVEN SO, STORM
COVERAGE SHOULD REMAIN ISOLATED AND A MRGL RISK WILL BE MAINTAINED,
PRIMARILY DUE TO STORM COVERAGE AND NEGLIGIBLE LARGE-SCALE SUPPORT.
LARGE HAIL IS THE PRIMARY CONCERN WITH THIS ACTIVITY.
..DARROW/WENDT.. 09/09/2025
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