557
ACUS11 KWNS 090543
SWOMCD
SPC MCD 090543
KSZ000-NEZ000-090815-
MESOSCALE DISCUSSION 2052
NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK
1243 AM CDT TUE SEP 09 2025
AREAS AFFECTED...SOUTHERN NEBRASKA...NORTHERN KANSAS
CONCERNING...SEVERE POTENTIAL...WATCH UNLIKELY
VALID 090543Z - 090815Z
PROBABILITY OF WATCH ISSUANCE...5 PERCENT
SUMMARY...AN ISOLATED LARGE HAIL THREAT MAY CONTINUE FOR A COUPLE
MORE HOURS IN PARTS OF SOUTHERN NEBRASKA AND NORTHERN KANSAS. THE
THREAT SHOULD BE TOO MARGINAL FOR WATCH ISSUANCE.
DISCUSSION...A MID-LEVEL SHORTWAVE TROUGH IS EVIDENT ON WATER VAPOR
IMAGERY OVER THE CENTRAL PLAINS. LARGE-SCALE ASCENT ASSOCIATED WITH
THIS FEATURE IS SUPPORTING ISOLATED THUNDERSTORM DEVELOPMENT OVER
PARTS OF SOUTH-CENTRAL NEBRASKA. THIS ACTIVITY IS LOCATED ALONG THE
EASTERN EDGE OF A NORTH-TO-SOUTH AXIS OF MODERATE INSTABILITY,
LOCATED FROM CENTRAL NEBRASKA INTO WESTERN KANSAS. SHORT-TERM MODEL
FORECASTS SUGGEST THE STORMS WILL CONTINUE TO PERSIST OVER THE NEXT
COUPLE OF HOURS AND WILL MOVE SOUTH-SOUTHEASTWARD INTO NORTH-CENTRAL
KANSAS. THESE CELLS ARE ELEVATED DUE TO A SHARP LOW-LEVEL
TEMPERATURE INVERSION, EVIDENT ON RAP FORECAST SOUNDINGS. THE
WSR-88D VWP AT HASTINGS SUGGESTS THAT EFFECTIVE SHEAR AROUND 30
KNOTS. THIS, COMBINED WITH STEEP MID-LEVEL LAPSE RATES WILL SUPPORT
AN ISOLATED LARGE HAIL THREAT. THE THREAT COULD PERSIST FOR A COUPLE
MORE HOURS.
..BROYLES/SMITH.. 09/09/2025
..PLEASE SEE WWW.SPC.NOAA.GOV FOR GRAPHIC PRODUCT
ATTN...WFO...TOP...ICT...GID...
LAT...LON 39089781 39339732 39759732 40369757 40719788 40969823
41039893 40849944 40439954 39899935 39329891 39129858
39049822 39089781
MOST PROBABLE PEAK HAIL SIZE...UP TO 1.25 IN
CLICK HERE TO GO TO PREVIOUS BULLETINS.
Main Text Page