578
ACUS48 KWNS 090901
SWOD48
SPC AC 090859
DAY 4-8 CONVECTIVE OUTLOOK
NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK
0359 AM CDT TUE SEP 09 2025
VALID 121200Z - 171200Z
..DISCUSSION
AS SHORTWAVE RIDGING BEGINS TO BREAKDOWN INTO THIS WEEKEND, THE
UPPER TROUGH AND ENHANCED SOUTHWESTERLY FLOW OVER THE ROCKIES WILL
FINALLY BEGIN TO OVERSPREAD THE PLAINS D4/FRIDAY AND D5/SATURDAY.
CONTINUED EAST/SOUTHEASTERLY LOW-LEVEL FLOW IS LIKELY OVER THE
NORTHERN PLAINS AND UPPER MIDWEST, ALLOWING FOR THE RETURN OF RICHER
SURFACE MOISTURE. A STALLED FRONT EXTENDING EASTWARD FROM THE LEE
LOW OVER THE DAKOTAS INTO THE WESTERN GREAT LAKES MAY SERVE AS A
FOCUS FOR STORM DEVELOPMENT ACROSS THE DAKOTAS AND MN. HOWEVER,
MODELS VARY ON THE DEGREE OF MOISTURE AND RESULTING BUOYANCY NEAR
THE LOW/FRONT, WHICH CASTS SIGNIFICANT UNCERTAINTY ON SEVERE
POTENTIAL. ENHANCED SOUTHWESTERLY FLOW ALOFT COULD SUPPORT SOME
ORGANIZED SEVERE THREAT, BUT CONFIDENCE IN SPECIFICS REMAINS TOO LOW
FOR 15% PROBABILITIES.
FARTHER SOUTH, SUFFICIENT DESTABILIZATION IS EXPECTED TO SUPPORT
ISOLATED THUNDERSTORMS EACH AFTERNOON INTO THE CENTRAL AND SOUTHERN
PLAINS. WHILE THE MAIN UPPER TROUGH SHOULD BEGIN TO WEAKEN LATER
INTO THE WEEKEND, LINGERING MID-LEVEL FLOW COULD SUPPORT SOME SEVERE
RISK WITHIN A HOT AND UNSTABLE AIR MASS ALONG A SURFACE TROUGH. BY
EARLY NEXT WEEK, MID-LEVEL RIDGING IS EXPECTED TO REBUILD OVER THE
CENTRAL CONUS KEEPING STRONGER FLOW ALOFT AND SEVERE POTENTIAL
LIMITED FOR THE REMAINDER OF THE EXTENDED FORECAST PERIOD.
..LYONS.. 09/09/2025
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