386
ACUS02 KWNS 091731
SWODY2
SPC AC 091730
DAY 2 CONVECTIVE OUTLOOK
NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK
1230 PM CDT TUE SEP 09 2025
VALID 101200Z - 111200Z
..NO SEVERE THUNDERSTORM AREAS FORECAST
..SUMMARY
SCATTERED SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS ARE POSSIBLE OVER PARTS OF THE
NORTHWEST AND NORTHERN ROCKIES WITH MORE ISOLATED STORMS OVER THE
HIGH PLAINS WEDNESDAY. A STRONGER STORM OR TWO IS POSSIBLE, BUT
SEVERE POTENTIAL IS OVERALL LOW.
..SYNOPSIS
AN UPPER-LEVEL RIDGE WILL STRENGTHEN ACROSS THE CENTRAL CONUS ON
WEDNESDAY WITH A TROUGH ACROSS THE WEST COAST AND A DEEPENING TROUGH
IN THE GREAT LAKES. SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE WILL DOMINATE MUCH OF THE
EASTERN CONUS WITH LOW PRESSURE ACROSS THE GREAT BASIN AND WEAK LEE
TROUGHING ACROSS THE HIGH PLAINS.
..DISCUSSION
A DRY, CONTINENTAL AIRMASS WILL KEEP CONVECTION SUPPRESSED ACROSS
MUCH OF THE EASTERN CONUS. WIDESPREAD CONVECTION IS ANTICIPATED
ACROSS THE NORTHWEST, NORTHERN GREAT BASIN, AND THE SOUTHWEST INTO
THE CENTRAL ROCKIES IN THE DIFFLUENT REGION AHEAD OF THE MID-LEVEL
TROUGH. THESE STORMS WILL BE SOMEWHAT DRY IN NATURE WITH PWAT VALUES
AROUND 0.5 TO 0.75 INCHES AND STEEP LOW-LEVEL LAPSE RATES.
THEREFORE, A FEW STRONGER DOWNBURSTS ARE POSSIBLE WITH ISOLATED
SEVERE WIND GUSTS. HOWEVER, RELATIVELY WEAK INSTABILITY SHOULD LIMIT
THE OVERALL SEVERE POTENTIAL ACROSS THE WEST.
GREATER INSTABILITY WILL EXIST ACROSS THE PLAINS, BUT BUILDING
HEIGHTS ALOFT WILL LIKELY KEEP STORM COVERAGE SOMEWHAT ISOLATED. A
REMNANT MCS FROM DAY 1 CONVECTION ACROSS WESTERN KANSAS MAY PERSIST
INTO THE MORNING HOURS, BUT SHOULD BE WEAKENING THROUGH THE MORNING
AS IT MOVES EAST OF THE LOW-LEVEL JET AXIS. SOME GUIDANCE, SUCH AS
THE NAM, SHOWS SIGNIFICANT AUGMENTATION OF THE MID-LEVEL HEIGHT
FIELD WHICH COULD SUPPRESS HEIGHTS ENOUGH FOR ISOLATED THUNDERSTORM
ACTIVITY NEAR THE REMNANT OUTFLOW/MCV FROM MORNING CONVECTION ON
WEDNESDAY AFTERNOON. HOWEVER, THIS SCENARIO IS UNCERTAIN, AND EVEN
IF IT DOES OCCUR, SHEAR WILL LIKELY BE RELATIVELY WEAK AND
THEREFORE, ANY SEVERE THREAT SHOULD BE ISOLATED.
..BENTLEY.. 09/09/2025
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