661
ACUS03 KWNS 091854
SWODY3
SPC AC 091853
DAY 3 CONVECTIVE OUTLOOK
NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK
0153 PM CDT TUE SEP 09 2025
VALID 111200Z - 121200Z
...THERE IS A MARGINAL RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS ACROSS WESTERN
SOUTH DAKOTA...MUCH OF NORTH DAKOTA...AND EASTERN MONTANA...
..SUMMARY
ISOLATED STRONG TO SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS ARE POSSIBLE ACROSS MONTANA
AND THE DAKOTAS ON THURSDAY. ADDITIONAL ISOLATED STORMS ARE POSSIBLE
ACROSS THE SOUTHERN HIGH PLAINS AND INTERMOUNTAIN WEST.
..DISCUSSION
PERSISTENT SOUTHWESTERLY FLOW ACROSS THE ROCKIES WILL MAINTAIN
PERSISTENT LEE TROUGHING ACROSS THE CENTRAL/NORTHERN HIGH PLAINS.
EAST OF THIS LEE TROUGH, A LARGE RESERVOIR OF LOW TO MID 60S
DEWPOINTS WILL BE PRESENT ACROSS THE PLAINS WHICH WILL LEAD TO
MODERATE INSTABILITY FROM KANSAS TO THE CANADIAN BORDER. ISOLATED
THUNDERSTORMS MAY BE POSSIBLE BY THURSDAY AFTERNOON AS INHIBITION
ERODES ALONG THIS TROUGH AXIS. ORGANIZED THUNDERSTORMS WILL BE MOST
LIKELY FROM SOUTHWEST SOUTH DAKOTA TO WESTERN NORTH DAKOTA/EASTERN
MONTANA WHERE STRONGER MID-LEVEL FLOW AND WEAK HEIGHT FALLS WILL BE
PRESENT. VERY STEEP MID-LEVEL LAPSE RATES AND SOMEWHAT DRY
LOW-LEVELS WILL SUPPORT THE POTENTIAL FOR LARGE HAIL SOME SEVERE
WIND GUST THREAT.
OVERALL, WEAK FORCING MAY KEEP STORM COVERAGE ISOLATED. HOWEVER, IF
GREATER STORM COVERAGE OCCURS, A HAIL DRIVEN SLIGHT RISK MAY BE
WARRANTED GIVEN AT LEAST MARGINAL SUPERCELL WIND PROFILES ACROSS THE
REGION.
..BENTLEY.. 09/09/2025
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