586
ACUS11 KWNS 092249
SWOMCD
SPC MCD 092249
NEZ000-COZ000-100015-
MESOSCALE DISCUSSION 2055
NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK
0549 PM CDT TUE SEP 09 2025
AREAS AFFECTED...NORTHEAST COLORADO INTO NEBRASKA PANHANDLE
CONCERNING...SEVERE POTENTIAL...WATCH UNLIKELY
VALID 092249Z - 100015Z
PROBABILITY OF WATCH ISSUANCE...5 PERCENT
SUMMARY...ISOLATED SEVERE GUSTS AND PERHAPS MARGINAL HAIL MAY OCCUR
LATE THIS AFTERNOON AND EARLY EVENING.
DISCUSSION...A FEW STORMS HAVE SLOWLY INTENSIFIED IN NORTHEAST
COLORADO AND THE NEBRASKA PANHANDLE AS THEY MOVE EAST INTO GREATER
LOW-LEVEL MOISTURE. THIS IS PRIMARILY IN RESPONSE TO A WEAK
SHORTWAVE TROUGH MOVING THROUGH THE UPPER-LEVEL RIDGE IN THE HIGH
PLAINS. EFFECTIVE SHEAR OF 30-40 KTS (STRONGER TO THE EAST) WILL
SUPPORT ISOLATED, MARGINALLY ORGANIZED CONVECTION. THE OVERALL LACK
OF MOISTURE AND LARGE-SCALE LIFT WILL LIMIT STORM INTENSITY.
INCREASING MLCIN--EVIDENT ON THE 18Z OBSERVED LBF SOUNDING--TO THE
EAST SHOULD ALSO KEEP THE SPATIAL EXTENT OF THE STRONGER ACTIVITY
LIMITED. THE WELL-MIXED BOUNDARY LAYER COULD PROMOTE ISOLATED SEVERE
WINDS. STORMS THAT CAN MAINTAIN A DISCRETE MODE COULD PRODUCE
MARGINALLY SEVERE HAIL AS WELL. OVERALL, ACTIVITY SHOULD BEGIN TO
GRADUALLY DIMINISH BY SUNSET AS CIN INCREASES FURTHER.
..WENDT/MOSIER.. 09/09/2025
..PLEASE SEE WWW.SPC.NOAA.GOV FOR GRAPHIC PRODUCT
ATTN...WFO...LBF...BOU...CYS...
LAT...LON 40510302 41200328 41920295 42270213 42040147 41550101
40690137 40510159 40510302
MOST PROBABLE PEAK WIND GUST...UP TO 60 MPH
MOST PROBABLE PEAK HAIL SIZE...UP TO 1.25 IN
CLICK HERE TO GO TO PREVIOUS BULLETINS.
Main Text Page