608
ACUS11 KWNS 100449
SWOMCD
SPC MCD 100449
KSZ000-COZ000-100645-
MESOSCALE DISCUSSION 2057
NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK
1149 PM CDT TUE SEP 09 2025
AREAS AFFECTED...CENTRAL HIGH PLAINS
CONCERNING...SEVERE POTENTIAL...WATCH POSSIBLE
VALID 100449Z - 100645Z
PROBABILITY OF WATCH ISSUANCE...40 PERCENT
SUMMARY...ISOLATED WIND/HAIL THREAT CAN BE EXPECTED WITH STORMS
ACROSS THE CENTRAL HIGH PLAINS INTO THE EARLY-MORNING HOURS.
DISCUSSION...SUSTAINED LOW-LEVEL WARM ADVECTION ACROSS THE CENTRAL
HIGH PLAINS APPEARS TO BE AIDING AN EXPANDING COMPLEX OF CONVECTION
FROM SOUTHEAST CO INTO SOUTHWEST KS. LATEST RADAR DATA SUGGESTS AN
MCS IS EVOLVING ALONG THE NOSE OF AN INTENSIFYING LLJ. THE LLJ IS
EXPECTED TO VEER INTO SOUTH CENTRAL KS LATER TONIGHT AS A WEAK
DISTURBANCE EJECTS INTO THIS PORTION OF THE PLAINS. WHILE THE
MAJORITY OF THIS CONVECTION SHOULD STRUGGLE TO ATTAIN SEVERE LEVELS,
THERE IS SOME CONCERN FOR HAIL/GUSTY WINDS AS MID-LEVEL LAPSE RATES
ARE STEEP. IF A MORE ORGANIZED BOWING SEGMENT ULTIMATELY EVOLVES
WITH THIS MATURING COMPLEX, A SEVERE THUNDERSTORM WATCH MAY BE
CONSIDERED, BUT FOR NOW IT IS NOT ANTICIPATED.
..DARROW/MOSIER.. 09/10/2025
..PLEASE SEE WWW.SPC.NOAA.GOV FOR GRAPHIC PRODUCT
ATTN...WFO...ICT...DDC...GLD...PUB...
LAT...LON 39170243 38499863 37329873 37590108 38220280 39170243
MOST PROBABLE PEAK WIND GUST...55-70 MPH
MOST PROBABLE PEAK HAIL SIZE...1.00-1.75 IN
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