793
ACUS11 KWNS 102049
SWOMCD
SPC MCD 102049
NVZ000-IDZ000-ORZ000-102245-
MESOSCALE DISCUSSION 2058
NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK
0349 PM CDT WED SEP 10 2025
AREAS AFFECTED...PARTS OF NORTH-CENTRAL NV INTO SOUTHWEST ID AND
EXTREME SOUTHEAST OR
CONCERNING...SEVERE POTENTIAL...WATCH UNLIKELY
VALID 102049Z - 102245Z
PROBABILITY OF WATCH ISSUANCE...5 PERCENT
SUMMARY...A FEW STRONG STORMS MAY DEVELOP BY LATE AFTERNOON.
LOCALIZED STRONG TO SEVERE GUSTS AND SMALL TO NEAR-SEVERE HAIL ARE
POSSIBLE.
DISCUSSION...STORMS ARE BEGINNING TO DEVELOP ACROSS PARTS OF
NORTH-CENTRAL NV THIS AFTERNOON, TO THE EAST OF A MID/UPPER-LEVEL
CYCLONE CENTERED OVER NORTHERN CA. STORM COVERAGE IS EXPECTED TO
INCREASE THROUGH LATE AFTERNOON, AS A MIDLEVEL VORTICITY MAXIMUM
MOVES ACROSS THE GREAT BASIN, ALONG THE EASTERN PERIPHERY OF THE
UPPER CYCLONE. LOW-LEVEL MOISTURE IS GENERALLY LIMITED ACROSS THE
REGION, BUT STEEP MIDLEVEL LAPSE RATES AND RATHER COLD TEMPERATURES
ALOFT WILL SUPPORT MUCAPE OF 500-1000 J/KG IN AREAS WHERE HEATING
CONTINUES THROUGH LATE AFTERNOON. MODESTLY ENHANCED MIDLEVEL FLOW TO
THE EAST OF THE UPPER CYCLONE WILL SUPPORT A GRADUAL INCREASE IN
EFFECTIVE SHEAR INTO THE 25-35 KT RANGE, SUFFICIENT FOR AT LEAST
TRANSIENT STORM ORGANIZATION.
WHILE STORM INTENSITY WILL BE TEMPERED BY THE MODEST BUOYANCY, STEEP
LOW-LEVEL LAPSE RATES WILL SUPPORT A THREAT OF STRONG TO LOCALLY
SEVERE GUSTS, ESPECIALLY IF ANY CLUSTERING AND OUTFLOW CONSOLIDATION
CAN EVOLVE WITH TIME. SMALL TO NEAR-SEVERE HAIL ALSO CANNOT BE RULED
OUT, GIVEN THE GENERALLY COOL TEMPERATURE PROFILES AND FAVORABLE
LAPSE RATES.
..DEAN/GUYER.. 09/10/2025
..PLEASE SEE WWW.SPC.NOAA.GOV FOR GRAPHIC PRODUCT
ATTN...WFO...BOI...LKN...REV...
LAT...LON 41141578 39521614 39171710 39471759 40961732 42761757
43241704 43141630 42841585 42461565 41851565 41141578
MOST PROBABLE PEAK WIND GUST...55-70 MPH
MOST PROBABLE PEAK HAIL SIZE...UP TO 1.25 IN
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