004
ACUS11 KWNS 110010
SWOMCD
SPC MCD 110010
NEZ000-COZ000-WYZ000-110145-
MESOSCALE DISCUSSION 2059
NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK
0710 PM CDT WED SEP 10 2025
AREAS AFFECTED...SOUTHWEST NE PANHANDLE VICINITY
CONCERNING...SEVERE POTENTIAL...WATCH UNLIKELY
VALID 110010Z - 110145Z
PROBABILITY OF WATCH ISSUANCE...5 PERCENT
SUMMARY...A COUPLE HOURS OF SEVERE HAIL AND WIND ARE POSSIBLE WITH A
PAIR OF SLOW-MOVING SUPERCELLS BEFORE CONVECTION WEAKENS AFTER DUSK.
DISCUSSION...CONVECTION NEAR THE WY/NE BORDER HAS CONSOLIDATED INTO
A PAIR OF NEARLY STATIONARY SUPERCELLS. THIS RECENT ORGANIZATION
APPEARS TO BE IN RESPONSE TO SOME STRENGTHENING OF BOTH MID-LEVEL
WEST-SOUTHWESTERLIES AND LOW-LEVEL SOUTHERLIES IN CYS VWP DATA. THE
LATTER HAS ALSO SUPPORTED AN INFLUX OF 50-54 F SURFACE DEW POINTS,
WHICH HAS AIDED IN THE SUPERCELL INTENSIFICATION. HOWEVER, THIS WILL
LIKELY BE TRANSIENT/SHORT-LIVED, SIMILAR TO HOW CONVECTION HAD
PULSED UP AND WEAKEN ALONG THE SOUTH SLOPE OF THE BLACK HILLS IN FAR
SOUTHWEST SD. ONSET OF NOCTURNAL BOUNDARY-LAYER COOLING AND LARGE
SURFACE TEMPERATURE/DEW POINT SPREADS SHOULD FOSTER
OUTFLOW-DOMINATED CELLS THAT HAVE PRONOUNCED WEAKENING AFTER DUSK.
..GRAMS/HART.. 09/11/2025
..PLEASE SEE WWW.SPC.NOAA.GOV FOR GRAPHIC PRODUCT
ATTN...WFO...LBF...BOU...CYS...
LAT...LON 41820347 41570259 41080258 40790326 40900388 41170419
41650397 41820347
MOST PROBABLE PEAK WIND GUST...55-70 MPH
MOST PROBABLE PEAK HAIL SIZE...1.00-1.75 IN
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