983
ACUS03 KWNS 110731
SWODY3
SPC AC 110730
DAY 3 CONVECTIVE OUTLOOK
NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK
0230 AM CDT THU SEP 11 2025
VALID 131200Z - 141200Z
...THERE IS A MARGINAL RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS ACROSS PORTIONS
OF THE CENTRAL AND SOUTHERN HIGH PLAINS...
..SUMMARY
STRONG TO SEVERE STORMS, CAPABLE OF STRONG WIND GUSTS, ARE POSSIBLE
OVER PARTS OF THE SOUTHERN AND CENTRAL HIGH PLAINS SATURDAY.
SCATTERED TO NUMEROUS STORMS ARE ALSO POSSIBLE OVER THE NORTHERN
PLAINS AND MIDWEST, THOUGH CONFIDENCE IN SEVERE POTENTIAL IS LOWER
HERE.
.CENTRAL AND SOUTHERN HIGH PLAINS
A COLD FRONT ASSOCIATED WITH A BROAD UPPER TROUGH EJECTING OVER THE
CENTRAL US IS FORECAST TO MOVE EAST OVER THE CENTRAL/SOUTHERN HIGH
PLAINS SATURDAY. SOUTHERLY LOW-LEVEL FLOW IS EXPECTED AHEAD OF THE
FRONT, SUPPORTING WEAK MOISTURE ADVECTION. SHOWERS/STORMS AND
REMNANT CLOUD COVER ARE LIKELY EARLY IN THE DAY WHICH COULD IMPACT
LATER DESTABILIZATION. STILL, MOST GUIDANCE SHOWS A LOOSE BAND OF
STORMS DEVELOPING BY EARLY AFTERNOON ALONG THE FRONT WITHIN STRONGER
SOUTHWESTERLY FLOW ALOFT FAVORABLE FOR MARGINALLY ORGANIZED
LINES/CLUSTERS. SOME HEATING AHEAD OF THESE STORMS IS EXPECTED TO
MODESTLY STEEPEN LOW-LEVEL LAPSE RATES, WHICH COULD SUPPORT ISOLATED
SEVERE GUSTS WITH THE STRONGEST STORMS SATURDAY AFTERNOON AND
EVENING.
..NORTHERN PLAINS
THE BROAD UPPER TROUGH WILL SLOWLY MOVE EASTWARD OVER THE PLAINS AS
SHORTWAVE RIDGING BUILDS OVER THE UPPER MIDWEST. EAST OF THE TROUGH,
A WEAK SURFACE LOW AND STALLED FRONT WILL PERSIST OVER THE DAKOTAS
WHILE A WEAK COLD FRONT MOVES EASTWARD OUT OF THE ROCKIES. SCATTERED
STORMS ARE LIKELY TO BE ONGOING NEAR THE SURFACE LOW ACROSS THE
DAKOTAS EARLY SATURDAY. SOME ISOLATED GUSTY WINDS OR HAIL ARE
POSSIBLE NEAR THE COLD FRONT/LOW IF SUFFICIENT DESTABILIZATION CAN
OCCUR AT THE SURFACE. HOWEVER, THERE REMAINS SIGNIFICANT UNCERTAINTY
IN THIS OCCURRING GIVEN THE POTENTIAL FOR WIDESPREAD CONVECTION.
..MIDWEST AND GREAT LAKES
A SECOND UPPER TROUGH WILL MOVE OUT OF SOUTHERN CANADA OVER THE
EASTERN GREAT LAKES AND NORTHEAST STATES EAST OF THE RIDGE.
NORTHERLY FLOW ALOFT WILL BE MODESTLY ENHANCED WITH THE PASSAGE OF
THE TROUGH. SOME THUNDERSTORMS ARE POSSIBLE ALONG THE WESTERN FLANK
OF THE TROUGH NEAR A STALLED FRONT ACROSS THE WESTERN GREAT LAKES
AND MIDWEST. MODERATE BUOYANCY ACROSS SOUTHERN MN/WI INTO NORTHERN
IL/IA COULD SUPPORT A FEW STRONGER STORMS DURING THE AFTERNOON,
THOUGH THE MODEST FLOW ALOFT IS UNLIKELY TO SUPPORT MUCH
ORGANIZATION OR SEVERE POTENTIAL.
..LYONS.. 09/11/2025
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