457
ACUS03 KWNS 111930
SWODY3
SPC AC 111929
DAY 3 CONVECTIVE OUTLOOK
NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK
0229 PM CDT THU SEP 11 2025
VALID 131200Z - 141200Z
...THERE IS A MARGINAL RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS ACROSS PORTIONS
OF THE NORTHERN PLAINS AND THE CENTRAL/SOUTHERN HIGH PLAINS...
..SUMMARY
STRONG TO SEVERE STORMS ARE POSSIBLE OVER PARTS OF THE SOUTHERN AND
CENTRAL HIGH PLAINS AND NORTHERN PLAINS SATURDAY. SCATTERED TO
NUMEROUS STORMS ARE ALSO POSSIBLE OVER THE MIDWEST, THOUGH
CONFIDENCE IN SEVERE POTENTIAL IS LOWER HERE.
..SYNOPSIS
A LARGE, NEGATIVELY-TILTED TROUGH WILL SHIFT EAST ACROSS THE ROCKIES
ON SATURDAY WITH A WEAK LEE CYCLONE ACROSS THE NORTHERN PLAINS. A
DRY, CONTINENTAL AIRMASS WILL BE IN PLACE ACROSS THE EASTERN CONUS
WHERE HIGH PRESSURE WILL BE IN PLACE.
..SOUTHERN/CENTRAL HIGH PLAINS
LOW-LEVEL MOISTURE ADVECTION ACROSS THE HIGH PLAINS, COMBINED WITH
COOLING TEMPERATURES ALOFT WILL LEAD TO SOME DESTABILIZATION ACROSS
EASTERN NEW MEXICO AND INTO THE CENTRAL HIGH PLAINS SATURDAY
AFTERNOON. OVERALL HEATING/INSTABILITY WILL LIKELY BE SOMEWHAT MUTED
BY CLOUDCOVER AHEAD OF THE UPPER-LEVEL TROUGH. NONETHELESS, AS THE
COLD FRONT ADVANCES EAST OF THE TERRAIN AND INTERACTS WITH WEAK TO
POTENTIALLY MODERATE INSTABILITY, STRONGER UPDRAFTS MAY DEVELOP.
AROUND 40 KNOTS OF MID-LEVEL FLOW WILL RESULT IN MODERATE
INSTABILITY AND THE POTENTIAL FOR SOME STORM ORGANIZATION. OVERALL
EXPECT LIMITED INSTABILITY TO KEEP THE THREAT LIMITED/ISOLATED.
..NORTHERN PLAINS
GUIDANCE CONSISTENTLY SHOWS MOISTURE WRAPPING AROUND THE NORTHERN
PORTION OF A CYCLONE ACROSS SOUTH DAKOTA SATURDAY MORNING, THIS
MOISTURE, COMBINED WITH COOLING TEMPERATURES ALOFT AND ISENTROPIC
ASCENT MAY RESULT IN A FEW ELEVATED THUNDERSTORMS CAPABLE OF LARGE
HAIL ON SATURDAY MORNING. ADDITIONAL STORMS MAY DEVELOP NORTH OF THE
SURFACE LOW AS TEMPERATURES COOL ALOFT AND SOME SURFACE-BASED
INSTABILITY DEVELOPS IN THE WAKE OF MORNING STORMS. THIS ENVIRONMENT
MAY ALSO SUPPORT A FEW STRONG STORMS CAPABLE OF ISOLATED DAMAGING
WINDS/LARGE HAIL.
..BENTLEY.. 09/11/2025
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