093
ACUS11 KWNS 112047
SWOMCD
SPC MCD 112047
NEZ000-SDZ000-COZ000-WYZ000-112245-
MESOSCALE DISCUSSION 2060
NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK
0347 PM CDT THU SEP 11 2025
AREAS AFFECTED...PARTS OF WESTERN SD/NE...FAR EASTERN WY...NORTHEAST
CO
CONCERNING...SEVERE POTENTIAL...WATCH UNLIKELY
VALID 112047Z - 112245Z
PROBABILITY OF WATCH ISSUANCE...20 PERCENT
SUMMARY...ISOLATED SEVERE STORMS ARE POSSIBLE THIS AFTERNOON AND
EVENING.
DISCUSSION...STORM DEVELOPMENT IS UNDERWAY THIS AFTERNOON ACROSS
PARTS OF THE CO FRONT RANGE INTO SOUTHEAST WY. FARTHER NORTH, STRONG
HEATING HAS OCCURRED FROM PARTS OF THE NE PANHANDLE INTO WESTERN SD.
THE STRONGEST INSTABILITY RESIDES ACROSS PARTS OF WESTERN SD, WHERE
THE 18Z UNR SOUNDING (MODIFIED FOR RECENT SURFACE OBSERVATIONS)
DEPICTS STEEP TROPOSPHERIC LAPSE RATES AND MLCAPE ABOVE 2000 J/KG.
EFFECTIVE SHEAR OF 30-40 KT ACROSS THIS AREA IS FAVORABLE FOR
ORGANIZED CONVECTION, THOUGH COVERAGE OF STORMS REMAINS SOMEWHAT
UNCERTAIN IN THE ABSENCE OF STRONGER LARGE-SCALE ASCENT. ANY STORM
THAT CAN MATURE WITHIN THIS ENVIRONMENT COULD POSE A THREAT FOR BOTH
SEVERE HAIL AND WIND, GIVEN THE FAVORABLE LAPSE RATES.
FARTHER SOUTH, THERE IS SOME POTENTIAL FOR ONGOING CONVECTION TO
INTENSIFY AS IT MOVES EASTWARD INTO A SOMEWHAT MORE MOIST AND
UNSTABLE ENVIRONMENT ACROSS NORTHEAST CO INTO THE NE PANHANDLE,
THOUGH MLCINH ALSO INCREASES WITH EASTWARD EXTENT. SUFFICIENT
DEEP-LAYER SHEAR WILL SUPPORT SOME POTENTIAL FOR ORGANIZED STORMS,
INCLUDING POTENTIAL FOR ISOLATED SEVERE HAIL/WIND.
..DEAN/GUYER.. 09/11/2025
..PLEASE SEE WWW.SPC.NOAA.GOV FOR GRAPHIC PRODUCT
ATTN...WFO...ABR...LBF...UNR...GLD...BOU...CYS...
LAT...LON 41020485 44830410 45740373 45780268 45820193 44360178
42660196 41670209 41040223 40040284 39630341 39580374
39540424 39640462 40160471 41020485
MOST PROBABLE PEAK WIND GUST...55-70 MPH
MOST PROBABLE PEAK HAIL SIZE...1.50-2.50 IN
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