732
ACUS11 KWNS 120608
SWOMCD
SPC MCD 120608
MNZ000-NDZ000-120845-
MESOSCALE DISCUSSION 2062
NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK
0108 AM CDT FRI SEP 12 2025
AREAS AFFECTED...NORTHEASTERN NORTH DAKOTA...FAR NORTHWEST MINNESOTA
CONCERNING...SEVERE POTENTIAL...WATCH UNLIKELY
VALID 120608Z - 120845Z
PROBABILITY OF WATCH ISSUANCE...5 PERCENT
SUMMARY...POTENTIAL FOR LARGE HAIL THREAT MAY CONTINUE FOR A COUPLE
MORE HOURS OVER NORTHEASTERN NORTH DAKOTA, BUT THE THREAT SHOULD
REMAIN TOO ISOLATED FOR WEATHER WATCH ISSUANCE.
DISCUSSION...A SUBTLE SHORTWAVE IS EVIDENT ON WATER VAPOR IMAGERY
OVER NORTHEASTERN NORTH DAKOTA, WHICH IS PROVIDING SUPPORT FOR A
SMALL CLUSTER OF STRONG THUNDERSTORMS. THESE STORMS ARE LOCATED
ALONG THE NORTHEASTERN EDGE OF A POCKET OF MODERATE INSTABILITY,
WHERE SURFACE DEWPOINTS ARE IN THE MID TO UPPER 60S F, AND MLCAPE IS
ESTIMATED BY THE RAP NEAR 2000 J/KG RANGE. IN THIS AREA, FORECAST
SOUNDINGS FROM THE RAP HAVE 700-500 MB LAPSE RATES AROUND 7.5 C/KM,
WITH 0-6 KM SHEAR IN THE 35 TO 40 KNOT RANGE. THIS ENVIRONMENT
SHOULD SUPPORT A POTENTIAL FOR LARGE HAIL WITH THE STRONGEST OF
CELLS WITHIN THE ONGOING CLUSTER. THIS CLUSTER IS FORECAST TO MOVE
EASTWARD ACROSS THE REMAINDER OF NORTHEAST NORTH DAKOTA AND INTO FAR
NORTHWEST MINNESOTA OVER THE NEXT FEW HOURS. ANY SEVERE THREAT
SHOULD BE TOO ISOLATED FOR WEATHER WATCH ISSUANCE.
..BROYLES/BUNTING.. 09/12/2025
..PLEASE SEE WWW.SPC.NOAA.GOV FOR GRAPHIC PRODUCT
ATTN...WFO...FGF...BIS...
LAT...LON 48999936 48990007 48830049 48500062 48180048 47949973
47779747 47769663 47959627 48489602 48779610 48969650
48989753 48999936
MOST PROBABLE PEAK WIND GUST...UP TO 60 MPH
MOST PROBABLE PEAK HAIL SIZE...UP TO 1.25 IN
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