461
ACUS03 KWNS 120731
SWODY3
SPC AC 120730
DAY 3 CONVECTIVE OUTLOOK
NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK
0230 AM CDT FRI SEP 12 2025
VALID 141200Z - 151200Z
...THERE IS A MARGINAL RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS PORTIONS OF THE
NORTHERN AND CENTRAL PLAINS...
..SUMMARY
STRONG TO SEVERE STORMS ARE POSSIBLE IN THE PARTS OF THE NORTHERN
AND CENTRAL PLAINS ON SUNDAY.
..SYNOPSIS
AN UPPER-LEVEL TROUGH, INITIALLY WITHIN THE CENTRAL HIGH PLAINS,
WILL PIVOT NORTHEASTWARD INTO THE CENTRAL/NORTHERN PLAINS ON SUNDAY.
A SURFACE LOW IS FORECAST WITHIN THE DAKOTAS WITH A WEAKER TROUGH
EXTENDING INTO THE SOUTHERN HIGH PLAINS.
..NORTHERN/CENTRAL PLAINS
A SURFACE LOW IS EXPECTED TO BE IN THE NORTHERN PLAINS. THIS, ALONG
WITH A SURFACE TROUGH EXTENDING TO THE SOUTH AND A WARM FRONT ACROSS
THE UPPER MIDWEST, SHOULD PROVIDE SOME FOCUS FOR STORM DEVELOPMENT
DURING THE AFTERNOON. GIVEN THE ORIENTATION OF THE UPPER TROUGH,
HODOGRAPHS WILL TEND TO HAVE SOME VEER-BACK CHARACTERISTICS IN THE
MID/UPPER LEVELS. EVEN SO, ENOUGH VERTICAL SHEAR SHOULD EXIST TO
PROMOTE ORGANIZED STORMS. CLOUD COVER MAY HINDER SURFACE HEATING,
MORE SO TO THE NORTH. TEMPERATURES NEAR -10 C AT 500 MB WILL ALLOW
FOR 1000-1500 J/KG MLCAPE WITH PERHAPS NEAR 2000 J/KG IN
NEBRASKA/KANSAS. THE HIGHEST CONFIDENCE IN STORM INITIATION IS
WITHIN PARTS OF THE CENTRAL/EASTERN DAKOTAS WHERE THE GREATER
LOW/MID-LEVEL FORCING WILL BE. FORCING BECOMES LESS CERTAIN WITH
SOUTHERN EXTENT. LARGE HAIL AND SEVERE GUSTS ARE THE MAIN HAZARDS.
..SOUTHERN HIGH PLAINS
A MORE CONDITIONAL SEVERE THREAT EXISTS IN THIS AREA. MODEL GUIDANCE
IS NOT CONSISTENT WITH REGARD TO HOW FAST THE TROUGH WILL EJECT INTO
THE PLAINS AND PIVOT NORTHEAST. IN EITHER CASE, THE SURFACE
TROUGH/CONVERGENCE WILL BE WEAK. THE SLOWER ECMWF SOLUTION WOULD
SUGGEST GREATER POTENTIAL FOR INITIATION EVEN THOUGH THERE STILL
WILL BE SLIGHT MID-LEVEL HEIGHT RISES DURING THE AFTERNOON/EVENING.
SUFFICIENT MID-LEVEL FLOW ACROSS THE SOUTHERN ROCKIES COULD PROMOTE
ORGANIZED STORMS, BUT CONFIDENCE IN INITIATION/COVERAGE IS MUCH TOO
LOW FOR PROBABILITIES.
..WENDT.. 09/12/2025
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