168
ACUS48 KWNS 120759
SWOD48
SPC AC 120758
DAY 4-8 CONVECTIVE OUTLOOK
NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK
0258 AM CDT FRI SEP 12 2025
VALID 151200Z - 201200Z
..DISCUSSION
ON MONDAY, A SHORTWAVE TROUGH IN THE NORTHERN PLAINS WILL CONTINUE
TO PIVOT NORTHEAST. THE TIMING OF THIS FEATURE REMAINS UNCERTAIN.
THE ECMWF IS THE LONE MODEL THAT HAS A SOLUTION SLOW ENOUGH TO HAVE
SOME DESTABILIZATION OCCUR AHEAD OF THE TROUGH. IT IS NOT CLEAR HOW
MUCH, IF ANY, SEVERE THREAT WILL EXIST IN PARTS OF CENTRAL/NORTHERN
MINNESOTA.
ON TUESDAY, MODELS INDICATE SHORTWAVE RIDGING WILL DEVELOP BEHIND
THE DEPARTING TROUGH IN THE UPPER MIDWEST. A SECONDARY, BROADER
TROUGH WILL BE SITUATED IN THE NORTHERN ROCKIES. MID-LEVEL FLOW WILL
NOT BE PARTICULARLY STRONG, BUT EMBEDDED PERTURBATIONS MAY PROVIDE
SOME ENHANCEMENT. DEPENDING ON THE QUALITY OF REMAINING MOISTURE IN
THE PLAINS, SOME SEVERE RISK COULD DEVELOP ALONG THE SURFACE TROUGH
IN THE CENTRAL HIGH PLAINS. UNCERTAINTY IS HIGH, HOWEVER.
THROUGH THE REMAINDER OF THE WEEK, THE UPPER-LEVEL PATTERN BECOMES
MUCH MORE DISORGANIZED. STRONGER FLOW MAY NOT RETURN UNTIL THE
WEEKEND WITH A TROUGH APPROACHES THE NORTHWEST. ORGANIZED SEVERE
POTENTIAL APPEARS TO BE LOW DURING THIS PERIOD.
..WENDT.. 09/12/2025
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