717
ACUS11 KWNS 121618
SWOMCD
SPC MCD 121617
MNZ000-SDZ000-NDZ000-121715-
MESOSCALE DISCUSSION 2064
NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK
1117 AM CDT FRI SEP 12 2025
AREAS AFFECTED...PORTIONS OF FAR NORTHEASTERN SOUTH DAKOTA AND
CENTRAL/NORTHERN MINNESOTA
CONCERNING...SEVERE POTENTIAL...WATCH UNLIKELY
VALID 121617Z - 121715Z
PROBABILITY OF WATCH ISSUANCE...5 PERCENT
SUMMARY...STORMS ACROSS CENTRAL/NORTHERN MINNESOTA WILL POSE A RISK
FOR SMALL TO SEVERE HAIL.
DISCUSSION...THUNDERSTORMS ONGOING ACROSS CENTRAL MINNESOTA HAVE
PRODUCED OCCASIONAL REPORTS OF HAIL UP TO 1 INCH. THOUGH MLCAPE IS
MEAGER, NAM/RAP FORECAST SOUNDINGS SUGGEST THERE IS AMPLE MUCAPE
ALOFT AMID STEEP MID-LEVEL LAPSE RATES AND DEEP LAYER SHEAR AROUND
30-40 KTS. THIS WILL CONTINUE TO SUPPORT A FEW INSTANCES OF SMALL TO
SEVERE HAIL. GIVEN THE UNCERTAINTY ON THE DURATION AND SPATIAL
COVERAGE OF THIS THREAT, A WATCH IS UNLIKELY.
..THORNTON/GUYER.. 09/12/2025
..PLEASE SEE WWW.SPC.NOAA.GOV FOR GRAPHIC PRODUCT
ATTN...WFO...DLH...MPX...FGF...ABR...
LAT...LON 46259647 47889535 48249448 48279355 48219296 48019250
47179222 46309236 46039247 45069606 45039720 45499759
45849735 46259647
MOST PROBABLE PEAK WIND GUST...UP TO 60 MPH
MOST PROBABLE PEAK HAIL SIZE...UP TO 1.25 IN
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