467
ACUS03 KWNS 121829
SWODY3
SPC AC 121828
DAY 3 CONVECTIVE OUTLOOK
NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK
0128 PM CDT FRI SEP 12 2025
VALID 141200Z - 151200Z
...THERE IS A MARGINAL RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS ACROSS THE
CENTRAL/NORTHERN PLAINS AND PORTIONS OF THE SOUTHERN HIGH PLAINS...
..SUMMARY
STRONG TO SEVERE STORMS ARE POSSIBLE IN PARTS OF THE NORTHERN AND
CENTRAL PLAINS AND THE SOUTHERN HIGH PLAINS ON SUNDAY.
..SYNOPSIS
A NEGATIVELY TILTED MID-LEVEL TROUGH WILL BEGIN THE PERIOD ACROSS
THE CENTRAL HIGH PLAINS AND MOVE NORTHEAST. THERE ARE STILL TIMING
DIFFERENCES WITH THE NORTHEASTWARD TRANSLATION OF THIS TROUGH WITH
THE GFS NEAR THE CANADIAN BORDER BY 12Z MONDAY WITH THE ECMWF
DEPICTING THIS TROUGH ACROSS EASTERN SOUTH DAKOTA AT THE SAME TIME.
A BROAD SURFACE LOW WILL BE PRESENT ACROSS THE DAKOTAS WITH AN
EXTENSION OF THIS TROUGH EXTENDING SOUTHWARD TO THE SOUTHERN HIGH
PLAINS.
..CENTRAL/NORTHERN PLAINS
EXPANSIVE CLOUDCOVER WILL LIKELY BE PRESENT ACROSS MUCH OF THE WARM
SECTOR ON SUNDAY AHEAD OF THE MID-LEVEL TROUGH. THIS WILL KEEP
INSTABILITY MOSTLY WEAK ACROSS MUCH OF THE CENTRAL/NORTHERN PLAINS.
MODERATE TO STRONG EFFECTIVE SHEAR WILL PROMOTE STORM ORGANIZATION
WITH ANY OF THE STRONGER UPDRAFTS WHICH CAN DEVELOP. AT THIS TIME,
RELATIVELY WEAK INSTABILITY WITHIN THE AREA OF GREATEST ASCENT CASTS
QUESTIONS ON THE COVERAGE OF STRONG TO SEVERE STORMS SUNDAY
AFTERNOON/EVENING. THEREFORE, SOME ISOLATED STORMS CAPABLE OF LARGE
HAIL AND WIND GUSTS ARE POSSIBLE, BUT A MORE ORGANIZED THREAT
REMAINS UNCLEAR.
..SOUTHERN HIGH PLAINS
STRONGER INSTABILITY IS POSSIBLE ACROSS THE TEXAS CAPROCK WHERE LOW
60S DEWPOINTS WILL BE PRESENT AMID MODERATELY STRONG HEATING.
RELATIVELY WARM MID-LEVEL TEMPERATURES (AROUND -6C) COULD BE A
LIMITING FACTOR TO STORM DEVELOPMENT. HOWEVER, SOME ASCENT WITHIN
THE RIGHT ENTRANCE REGION OF THE UPPER-LEVEL JET MAY SUPPORT STORM
DEVELOPMENT. THIS IS SUPPORTED BY SCATTERED STORM COVERAGE FROM CAM
GUIDANCE WHICH EXTENDS INTO DAY 3/SUNDAY. THEREFORE, A MARGINAL RISK
HAS BEEN ADDED TO ADDRESS THIS SEVERE WEATHER POTENTIAL.
..BENTLEY.. 09/12/2025
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