247
ACUS11 KWNS 122301
SWOMCD
SPC MCD 122301
NDZ000-SDZ000-MTZ000-WYZ000-130130-
MESOSCALE DISCUSSION 2068
NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK
0601 PM CDT FRI SEP 12 2025
AREAS AFFECTED...NORTHEAST WYOMING INTO WESTERN SOUTH DAKOTA AND
SOUTHWEST NORTH DAKOTA
CONCERNING...SEVERE POTENTIAL...WATCH POSSIBLE
VALID 122301Z - 130130Z
PROBABILITY OF WATCH ISSUANCE...40 PERCENT
SUMMARY...STORMS MAY INCREASE IN COVERAGE THIS EVENING, WITH STRONG
WIND GUSTS IN ADDITION TO SPORADIC LARGE HAIL. TRENDS ARE BEING
MONITORED FOR WATCH POTENTIAL.
DISCUSSION...WIDELY SCATTERED CELLS, SOME WITH HAIL, PERSIST THIS
EVENING OVER PARTS OF MT, WY, AND THE DAKOTAS, WHERE PEAK HEATING
HAS LED TO AN UNCAPPED AIR MASS AND MODERATE INSTABILITY. THUS FAR,
CLUSTERS OF CELLS HAVE BEEN SLOW MOVING. HOWEVER, A GRADUAL UPTICK
IN COVERAGE HAS BEEN NOTED RECENTLY OVER NORTHEAST WY, WESTERN SD
AND NOW INTO SOUTH-CENTRAL ND.
ALSO OF NOTE IS AN APPARENT OUTFLOW SURGE ASSOCIATED WITH A LARGER
AREA OF CONVECTION OVER EAST-CENTRAL WY. INDICATIONS ARE THAT NEW
CELL DEVELOPMENT MAY KEEP DEVELOPING ALONG THE LEADING EDGE OF THE
OUTFLOW/BAROCLINIC ZONE AS IT PUSHES NORTHEASTWARD ACROSS NORTHEAST
WY, SOUTHEAST MT, AND THE WESTERN DAKOTA THROUGH THE EVENING. SUCH A
PROPAGATING STORM REGIME COULD RESULT IN AN INCREASED WIND RISK,
SPECIALLY AS THE ACTIVITY INTERACTS WITH AN INCREASINGLY
MOIST/UNSTABLE AIR MASS TO THE NORTHEAST.
..JEWELL/GLEASON.. 09/12/2025
..PLEASE SEE WWW.SPC.NOAA.GOV FOR GRAPHIC PRODUCT
ATTN...WFO...ABR...BIS...UNR...CYS...BYZ...RIW...
LAT...LON 44160672 45880482 46250406 46920201 46920104 46770055
46520033 46200042 45740103 44020176 43480215 43140289
43010407 43170493 43670641 44160672
MOST PROBABLE PEAK WIND GUST...55-70 MPH
MOST PROBABLE PEAK HAIL SIZE...1.50-2.50 IN
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