827
ACUS03 KWNS 130701
SWODY3
SPC AC 130700
DAY 3 CONVECTIVE OUTLOOK
NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK
0200 AM CDT SAT SEP 13 2025
VALID 151200Z - 161200Z
..NO SEVERE THUNDERSTORM AREAS FORECAST
..SUMMARY
ORGANIZED SEVERE THUNDERSTORM POTENTIAL APPEARS GENERALLY LOW ON
MONDAY.
..SYNOPSIS AND DISCUSSION
A PAIR OF UPPER TROUGHS/LOWS SHOULD BE IN PLACE OVER THE NORTHERN
ROCKIES AND NORTHERN PLAINS MONDAY MORNING. THE LEAD WAVE IS
FORECAST TO ADVANCE NORTHWARD FROM THE DAKOTAS AND MN INTO CENTRAL
CANADA THROUGH THE DAY, WHILE THE TRAILING LOW GRADUALLY OPENS AND
WEAKENS AS IT MOVES SLOWLY EASTWARD OVER THE NORTHERN ROCKIES/HIGH
PLAINS. A WEAK SURFACE LOW SHOULD DEVELOP NORTHWARD FROM ND INTO
MANITOBA BY MONDAY EVENING, WITH A WEAK FRONT EXTENDING SOUTHWARD
FROM THIS LOW ACROSS PARTS OF THE NORTHERN/CENTRAL PLAINS. ORGANIZED
SEVERE THUNDERSTORM POTENTIAL IS CURRENTLY EXPECTED TO REMAIN FAIRLY
LIMITED, WITH MODESTLY ENHANCED BUT MERIDIONAL/SOUTHERLY
MID/UPPER-LEVEL FLOW ACROSS MN LIMITING DEEP-LAYER SHEAR OVER THE
MODERATELY UNSTABLE WARM SECTOR. BETTER LARGE-SCALE ASCENT IS ALSO
FORECAST TO GRADUALLY SHIFT NORTHWARD INTO CENTRAL CANADA THROUGH
THE DAY AS WELL. GIVEN THESE POTENTIAL LIMITING FACTORS, LOW SEVERE
PROBABILITIES HAVE NOT BEEN INCLUDED ACROSS NORTHERN MN AND VICINITY
AT THIS TIME.
ELSEWHERE, GENERAL THUNDERSTORMS SHOULD OCCUR BENEATH THE UPPER LOW
ACROSS THE NORTHERN ROCKIES/HIGH PLAINS, BUT BOTH INSTABILITY AND
DEEP-LAYER SHEAR ARE FORECAST TO REMAIN WEAK ACROSS THESE REGIONS.
ISOLATED CONVECTION MAY ALSO DEVELOP MONDAY AFTERNOON AND EVENING
WITH SOUTHWARD EXTENT ALONG A SURFACE LEE TROUGH ACROSS THE
SOUTHERN/CENTRAL PLAINS, BUT WEAK FORCING ALOFT SHOULD TEND TO LIMIT
OVERALL COVERAGE. OTHER CONVECTION MAY ALSO OCCUR ALONG A LOW-LEVEL
MOIST AXIS EXTENDING FROM PARTS OF THE OZARKS/MID-SOUTH NORTHWARD
INTO THE UPPER MIDWEST.
..GLEASON.. 09/13/2025
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