864
ACUS48 KWNS 130756
SWOD48
SPC AC 130754
DAY 4-8 CONVECTIVE OUTLOOK
NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK
0254 AM CDT SAT SEP 13 2025
VALID 161200Z - 211200Z
..DISCUSSION
WEAK MID/UPPER-LEVEL TROUGHING SHOULD CONTINUE TO MOVE SLOWLY
EASTWARD FROM THE NORTHERN ROCKIES/HIGH PLAINS INTO THE CENTRAL
PLAINS AND UPPER MIDWEST FROM DAY 4/TUESDAY INTO DAY 5/WEDNESDAY.
THUNDERSTORMS SHOULD DEVELOP ACROSS THESE REGIONS BOTH DAYS AS A
SURFACE COLD FRONT LIKEWISE DEVELOPS EAST-SOUTHEASTWARD. WHILE
MODERATE TO LOCALLY STRONG INSTABILITY MAY DEVELOP ACROSS THE WARM
SECTOR EACH AFTERNOON, MID-LEVEL FLOW AND RELATED DEEP-LAYER SHEAR
ARE EXPECTED TO REMAIN RATHER MODEST. THIS SHOULD TEND TO LIMIT
UPDRAFT ORGANIZATION AND INTENSITY TO SOME EXTENT, ALTHOUGH
ISOLATED/MARGINAL SEVERE POTENTIAL MAY NECESSITATE LOW SEVERE
PROBABILITIES IN LATER OUTLOOKS.
BY LATE NEXT WEEK INTO THE FOLLOWING WEEKEND (DAY 6/THURSDAY TO DAY
8/SATURDAY), MEDIUM-RANGE GUIDANCE BEGINS TO DIVERGE IN ITS
DEPICTION OF THE EVOLUTION OF UPPER TROUGHING ACROSS THE MIDWEST/OH
VALLEY INTO THE EASTERN CONUS. THIS LOWERS CONFIDENCE IN THE
PREDICTABILITY OF ORGANIZED SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS, BUT SOME POTENTIAL
FOR STRONG THUNDERSTORMS MAY EXIST ACROSS PORTIONS OF THESE REGIONS
ALONG/AHEAD OF AN ADVANCING COLD FRONT.
..GLEASON.. 09/13/2025
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