022
ACUS48 KWNS 140739
SWOD48
SPC AC 140737
DAY 4-8 CONVECTIVE OUTLOOK
NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK
0237 AM CDT SUN SEP 14 2025
VALID 171200Z - 221200Z
..DISCUSSION
ORGANIZED SEVERE THUNDERSTORM POTENTIAL APPEARS LOW DURING THE DAY
4-8/WED-SUN PERIOD. MEDIUM RANGE GUIDANCE IS IN FAIRLY GOOD
AGREEMENT THAT THE UPPER SHORTWAVE TROUGH OVER THE NORTHERN/CENTRAL
PLAINS DAY 4 WILL DEVELOP AN UPPER LOW AS IT MEANDERS SLOWLY EAST
TOWARD THE MID/UPPER MS VALLEY AND THE UPPER GREAT LAKES THROUGH
MOST OF THE FORECAST PERIOD. SOME MODEST WEST/SOUTHWESTERLY
MID/UPPER FLOW AHEAD OF THE TROUGH, IN CONJUNCTION WITH A SEASONALLY
MOIST BOUNDARY LAYER AHEAD OF A SOUTHEASTWARD-DRIFTING COLD FRONT
COULD SUPPORT SPORADIC STRONG STORMS ACROSS PARTS OF THE CENTRAL
U.S. FROM THE OZARKS TO THE UPPER MS VALLEY MID TO LATE IN THE WEEK.
HOWEVER, VERTICAL SHEAR IS EXPECTED TO REMAIN POOR, AND THE
SLOW-MOVING NATURE OF THE UPPER LOW AND WEAKENING SURFACE FRONT WITH
TIME/EASTWARD EXTENT, WILL GENERALLY BE UNFAVORABLE FOR A MORE
ROBUST SEVERE RISK.
..LEITMAN.. 09/14/2025
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