165
ACUS02 KWNS 141727
SWODY2
SPC AC 141725
DAY 2 CONVECTIVE OUTLOOK
NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK
1225 PM CDT SUN SEP 14 2025
VALID 151200Z - 161200Z
..NO SEVERE THUNDERSTORM AREAS FORECAST
..SUMMARY
ORGANIZED SEVERE THUNDERSTORM POTENTIAL APPEARS GENERALLY LOW ON
MONDAY.
..SYNOPSIS
AN UPPER-LEVEL TROUGH WILL PIVOT NORTHEASTWARD THROUGH MINNESOTA
EARLY IN THE PERIOD. TO THE WEST, ANOTHER SHORTWAVE TROUGH WILL MOVE
INTO THE NORTHERN ROCKIES. A WEAK SURFACE TROUGH WILL EXIST IN THE
CENTRAL/NORTHERN PLAINS.
..UPPER MISSISSIPPI VALLEY SOUTHWARD INTO THE OZARKS
CURRENT GUIDANCE CONTINUES TO SUGGEST THAT THE SHORTWAVE TROUGH
MOVING NORTHEASTWARD THROUGH MINNESOTA WILL NOT BE WELL PHASED WITH
THE GREATEST SURFACE HEATING. HOWEVER, THE ECMWF REMAINS SLOWER THAN
OTHER GUIDANCE IN THIS REGARD. GREATER BUOYANCY WILL MORE LIKELY
DEVELOP FROM CENTRAL MINNESOTA/WESTERN WISCONSIN SOUTHWARD INTO THE
OZARKS. HOWEVER, THESE AREAS WILL BE INCREASINGLY REMOVED FROM THE
DEPARTING MID-LEVEL ASCENT AND STRONGER WIND SHEAR. OCCASIONALLY
STRONG STORMS ARE POSSIBLE DURING THE AFTERNOON WITHIN THE POCKETS
OF GREATER BUOYANCY, BUT THE A LARGE SCALE PATTERN SUGGESTS THESE
STORMS WILL BE QUITE ISOLATED AND BRIEF.
..CENTRAL INTO NORTHERN HIGH PLAINS
WIDELY SCATTERED TO SCATTERED CONVECTION IS POSSIBLE FROM CENTRAL
WYOMING INTO PORTION OF THE HIGH PLAINS TO THE EAST. CLOUD COVER
ASSOCIATED WITH THE UPPER TROUGH TO THE WEST AND LIMITED LOW-LEVEL
MOISTURE WILL LIMIT THE INTENSITY OF THIS ACTIVITY. EVEN SO, STEEP
MID-LEVEL LAPSE RATES AND POCKETS OF STEEPER LOW-LEVEL LAPSE RATES
COULD SUPPORT STRONGER WIND GUSTS.
..NORTH CAROLINA TIDEWATER
AN OFFSHORE SURFACE LOW WILL MOVE INLAND LATE MONDAY INTO TUESDAY
MORNING. WHILE LOW-LEVEL SHEAR WILL BE ENHANCED,
PRECIPITATION/CLOUDS TROUGH THE DAY/EVENING SHOULD KEEP BUOYANCY
INLAND LIMITED. CONFIDENCE IN A LOW-END SEVERE THREAT REMAINS VERY
LOW.
..WENDT.. 09/14/2025
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