496
ACUS02 KWNS 150538
SWODY2
SPC AC 150536
DAY 2 CONVECTIVE OUTLOOK
NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK
1236 AM CDT MON SEP 15 2025
VALID 161200Z - 171200Z
...THERE IS A MARGINAL RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS ACROSS PORTIONS
OF THE CENTRAL PLAINS...
..SUMMARY
ISOLATED STRONG TO SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS ARE POSSIBLE ON TUESDAY
ACROSS PORTIONS OF THE CENTRAL PLAINS.
..CENTRAL/SOUTHERN PLAINS
A POSITIVELY TILTED UPPER SHORTWAVE TROUGH WILL SLOWLY DEVELOP EAST
FROM THE NORTHERN GREAT BASIN/NORTHERN ROCKIES TO THE
NORTHERN/CENTRAL HIGH PLAINS ON TUESDAY. DEEP-LAYER FLOW IS EXPECTED
TO REMAIN FAIRLY WEAK, LIMITING STRONGER VERTICAL SHEAR. AT THE
SURFACE, A WEAK COLD FRONT WILL EXTEND FROM NORTHERN MN INTO
WESTERN/CENTRAL NE BY 00Z. A SECONDARY WEAK SURFACE TROUGH WILL
EXTEND SOUTHWARD ACROSS EASTERN CO INTO THE SOUTHERN HIGH PLAINS.
AHEAD OF THESE SURFACE FEATURES, UPPER 50S TO MID 60S F DEWPOINTS
WILL BE IN PLACE BENEATH A PLUME OF STEEP MIDLEVEL LAPSE RATES. THIS
WILL ALLOW FOR MODERATE DESTABILIZATION ACROSS A MOSTLY UNCAPPED
WARM SECTOR.
LARGE-SCALE ASCENT ASSOCIATED WITH THE APPROACHING UPPER TROUGH WILL
LIKELY BE ILL-TIMED WITH PEAK HEATING, AND MAY NOT ARRIVE ACROSS THE
REGION UNTIL AFTER 00Z. NEVERTHELESS, LOW-LEVEL FRONTAL CONVERGENCE
MAY SUPPORT ISOLATED TO SCATTERED THUNDERSTORM DEVELOPMENT NEAR THE
SURFACE COLD FRONT BY LATE AFTERNOON. GIVEN BOUNDARY-PARALLEL
DEEP-LAYER FLOW, THIS ACTIVITY MAY QUICKLY BECOME ELEVATED/UNDERCUT
BY THE SURFACE FRONT. NEVERTHELESS, SUFFICIENT INSTABILITY, STEEP
LOW-LEVEL LAPSE RATES AND AT LEAST MODEST EFFECTIVE SHEAR (LESS THAN
25 KT) SHOULD SUPPORT AN ISOLATED/MARGINAL SEVERE WIND/HAIL RISK
FROM PORTIONS OF NORTHEAST CO/NORTHWEST KS INTO WESTERN/CENTRAL NE
AND SOUTH-CENTRAL SD THROUGH THE EVENING.
ADDITIONAL STORMS MAY DEVELOP NEAR THE WEAK SURFACE TROUGH FROM
SOUTHEASTERN CO/EASTERN NM AND SPREAD EAST INTO ADJACENT PORTIONS OF
SOUTHWEST KS AND THE OK/TX PANHANDLES. INSTABILITY AND SHEAR ARE
EXPECTED TO BE VERY MODEST ACROSS THESE AREAS. HOWEVER, A DEEPLY
MIXED BOUNDARY LAYER/STEEP LOW-LEVEL LAPSE RATES COULD SUPPORT
LOCALLY GUSTY WINDS WITH THIS ACTIVITY.
..NC/VA TIDEWATER
A COASTAL LOW WILL BE LOCATED NEAR THE OUTER BANKS TUESDAY MORNING.
LOW-LEVEL FLOW WILL BE ENHANCED NEAR/NORTH OF THE LOW CENTER, WITH
SOME WEAK INSTABILITY NEAR THE COAST. LOCALLY STRONG GUSTS MAY
ACCOMPANY SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS FOR A FEW HOURS DURING THE
MORNING. AS THE LOW DRIFTS NORTH THROUGH THE DAY, MORE SUBSTANTIAL
INSTABILITY IS EXPECTED TO REMAIN OFFSHORE.
..LEITMAN.. 09/15/2025
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