008
ACUS02 KWNS 160544
SWODY2
SPC AC 160542
DAY 2 CONVECTIVE OUTLOOK
NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK
1242 AM CDT TUE SEP 16 2025
VALID 171200Z - 181200Z
..NO SEVERE THUNDERSTORM AREAS FORECAST
..SUMMARY
SEVERE THUNDERSTORM POTENTIAL IS EXPECTED TO REMAIN LIMITED ON
WEDNESDAY.
..CENTRAL/SOUTHERN HIGH PLAINS VICINITY
AN UPPER TROUGH WILL OVERSPREAD THE NORTHERN PLAINS TO THE SOUTHERN
HIGH PLAINS. WITH TIME, AN UPPER LOW IS FORECAST TO DEVELOP WITHIN
THE BROADER TROUGHING REGIME OVER THE NORTHERN HIGH PLAINS VICINITY.
DEEP-LAYER FLOW WILL GENERALLY BE WEAK, LIMITING VERTICAL SHEAR.
HOWEVER, A SURFACE FRONT IS FORECAST TO BE ORIENTED FROM FAR
SOUTHEAST CO/NORTHEAST NM EASTWARD ALONG THE KS/OK BORDER.
EAST/SOUTHEASTERLY LOW-LEVEL FLOW NEAR THE BOUNDARY COULD ENHANCED
VERTICAL SHEAR LOCALLY, WITH EFFECTIVE SHEAR VALUES UP TO 25-30 KT
POSSIBLE BY LATE AFTERNOON/EVENING. BOUNDARY LAYER MOISTURE WILL BE
MODEST, IN THE 50S TO LOW 60S F FROM THE RATON MESA VICINITY INTO
SOUTHWEST KS AND THE OK/TX PANHANDLES. NEVERTHELESS, STEEP MIDLEVEL
LAPSE RATES AND COOL TEMPERATURES ALOFT WILL SUPPORT MLCAPE OF
1000-2000 J/KG. ISOLATED THUNDERSTORMS ARE EXPECTED TO DEVELOP BY
LATE AFTERNOON IN THE UPSLOPE FLOW REGIME. THE STRONGEST STORMS
COULD PRODUCE SUB-SEVERE HAIL AND GUSTY WINDS ACROSS SOUTHEAST
CO/NORTHEAST NM, SOUTHWEST KS AND PORTIONS OF THE OK/TX PANHANDLES.
..NORTHERN OK INTO MN/WI
A SEASONALLY MOIST AIRMASS WILL BE IN PLACE TO THE EAST OF A SURFACE
BOUNDARY EXTENDING FROM EASTERN SD INTO CENTRAL/SOUTHWEST KS BY LATE
AFTERNOON. ROUNDS OF SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS ARE POSSIBLE, AND MAY
BE ONGOING ACROSS PARTS OF THE REGION WEDNESDAY MORNING. THIS
ACTIVITY AND ASSOCIATED CLOUD COVER CAST DOUBT ON WHERE STRONGER
DESTABILIZATION WILL OCCUR THROUGH PEAK HEATING. FURTHERMORE,
VERTICAL SHEAR IS EXPECTED TO REMAIN WEAK, AND LAPSE RATES WILL BE
POOR, ESPECIALLY WITH NORTHWARD EXTENT. A STRONG STORM OR TWO WILL
BE POSSIBLE WHERE STRONGER DESTABILIZATION OCCURS, BUT OVERALL
SEVERE POTENTIAL IS EXPECTED TO REMAIN LIMITED.
..LEITMAN.. 09/16/2025
CLICK HERE TO GO TO PREVIOUS BULLETINS.
Main Text Page