486
ACUS48 KWNS 160810
SWOD48
SPC AC 160809
DAY 4-8 CONVECTIVE OUTLOOK
NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK
0309 AM CDT TUE SEP 16 2025
VALID 191200Z - 241200Z
..DISCUSSION
SEVERE THUNDERSTORM POTENTIAL IS EXPECTED TO REMAIN LOW THROUGH AT
LEAST DAY 6/SUN. A SHORTWAVE UPPER TROUGH OVER THE NORTH-CENTRAL
U.S. WILL SLOWLY MIGRATE EAST ACROSS THE GREAT LAKES REGION THROUGH
THE WEEKEND. WEAK DEEP LAYER FLOW AND LIMITED LARGE-SCALE ASCENT
WILL PRECLUDE SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS. BY THE END OF THE PERIOD, AROUND
DAYS 7-8/MON-TUE, MEDIUM RANGE GUIDANCE SUGGESTS A MORE SUBSTANTIAL
UPPER TROUGH WILL EJECT FROM THE NORTHERN ROCKIES AND DEEPEN OVER
THE PLAINS/MIDWEST AS A STRONGER SURFACE COLD FRONT MOVES THROUGH
THE CENTRAL PORTIONS OF THE CONUS. THIS COULD SUPPORT SOME
INCREASING SEVERE THUNDERSTORM POTENTIAL, BUT LARGE SPREAD REMAINS
ACROSS VARIOUS FORECAST GUIDANCE REGARDING TIMING AND EVOLUTION OF
THIS FEATURE AS IT DEVELOPS EAST OF THE ROCKIES EARLY NEXT WEEK.
..LEITMAN.. 09/16/2025
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