190
ACUS02 KWNS 161723
SWODY2
SPC AC 161721
DAY 2 CONVECTIVE OUTLOOK
NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK
1221 PM CDT TUE SEP 16 2025
VALID 171200Z - 181200Z
...THERE IS A MARGINAL RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS FOR THE
SOUTH-CENTRAL HIGH PLAINS...
..SUMMARY
ISOLATED SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS ARE POSSIBLE WEDNESDAY OVER SOUTHEAST
COLORADO AND NORTHEAST NEW MEXICO DURING THE LATE AFTERNOON AND
EVENING.
..HIGH PLAINS IN LEE OF THE SANGRE DE CRISTOS
A MID- TO UPPER-LEVEL LOW/TROUGH CENTERED OVER THE NORTH-CENTRAL
ROCKIES AND ADJACENT PLAINS, WILL FEATURE A FEW EMBEDDED MID-LEVEL
VORTICITY MAXIMA ROTATING THROUGH THE LARGER-SCALE TROUGH. THE
PRIMARY DISTURBANCE OF INTEREST WILL SLOWLY MIGRATE EASTWARD FROM
NORTHEAST CO INTO CENTRAL NE DURING THE PERIOD. A BELT OF MODERATE
MID- TO HIGH-LEVEL WESTERLY FLOW (I.E., 20-30 KT AT 500 MB) WILL
MOVE THROUGH THE BASE OF THE TROUGH ACROSS SOUTHERN CO. IN THE LOW
LEVELS, A FRONT WILL BECOME DRAPED FROM THE MID MO VALLEY
SOUTH-SOUTHWEST INTO THE KS-CO-OK-TX-NM BORDER REGION.
SOUTHEASTERLY MOIST POST-FRONTAL UPSLOPE FLOW WILL AID IN A MOIST
AIRMASS OVER SOUTHEAST CO ON WEDNESDAY.
STEEP 700-500 MB LAPSE RATES AROUND 7.5 TO 8 DEG C/KM COUPLED WITH
DIURNAL HEATING ON THE EAST-FACING SLOPES, WILL RESULT IN MODERATE
BUOYANCY BY MID AFTERNOON NEAR THE I-25 CORRIDOR OVER FAR NORTHEAST
NM INTO SOUTHEAST CO. ISOLATED TO SCATTERED THUNDERSTORMS
DEVELOPING INITIALLY OVER THE HIGHER TERRAIN WILL MOVE EAST INTO THE
HIGH PLAINS/ESCARPMENT AND GRADUALLY MATURE/STRENGTHEN. FORECAST
SOUNDINGS SHOW 30-45 KT EFFECTIVE SHEAR AND ELONGATED HODOGRAPHS DUE
TO 75-KT 200-MB WESTERLY FLOW. THE MAGNITUDE OF SHEAR AND
APPRECIABLE BUOYANCY WILL PROBABLY FAVOR AN ISOLATED RISK FOR LARGE
HAIL AND SEVERE GUSTS WITH THE STRONGER STORMS DURING THE LATE
AFTERNOON/EARLY EVENING.
..NORTHERN OK INTO MN/WI
A SEASONALLY MOIST AIRMASS WILL BE IN PLACE TO THE EAST OF A SURFACE
BOUNDARY EXTENDING FROM EASTERN SD INTO CENTRAL/SOUTHWEST KS BY LATE
AFTERNOON. ROUNDS OF SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS ARE POSSIBLE, AND MAY
BE ONGOING ACROSS PARTS OF THE REGION WEDNESDAY MORNING. THIS
ACTIVITY AND ASSOCIATED CLOUD COVER CAST DOUBT ON WHERE STRONGER
DESTABILIZATION WILL OCCUR THROUGH PEAK HEATING. FURTHERMORE,
VERTICAL SHEAR IS EXPECTED TO REMAIN WEAK, AND LAPSE RATES WILL BE
POOR, ESPECIALLY WITH NORTHWARD EXTENT. A STRONG STORM OR TWO WILL
BE POSSIBLE WHERE STRONGER DESTABILIZATION OCCURS, BUT OVERALL
SEVERE POTENTIAL IS EXPECTED TO REMAIN LIMITED.
..SMITH.. 09/16/2025
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