156
ACUS02 KWNS 171732
SWODY2
SPC AC 171730
DAY 2 CONVECTIVE OUTLOOK
NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK
1230 PM CDT WED SEP 17 2025
VALID 181200Z - 191200Z
...THERE IS A MARGINAL RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS FROM CENTRAL IA
INTO WESTERN MO...EASTERN KS...NORTHWEST AR...OK...AND THE SOUTHEAST
TX PANHANDLE...
..SUMMARY
STRONG TO LOCALLY SEVERE STORMS ARE POSSIBLE FROM PARTS OF THE
MIDWEST INTO THE EAST-CENTRAL AND SOUTHERN PLAINS ON THURSDAY.
..SYNOPSIS
LITTLE CHANGE TO THE OVERALL PATTERN IS EXPECTED ON THURSDAY, WITH
A MID/UPPER-LEVEL TROUGH EXPECTED TO PERSIST OVER THE
NORTHERN/CENTRAL PLAINS. WITHIN THE BROADER TROUGH, DISTINCT
MID/UPPER-LEVEL LOWS INITIALLY OVER NORTHEAST MT AND CENTRAL SD MAY
BEGIN TO CONSOLIDATE BY THURSDAY NIGHT, AS A CONVECTIVELY ENHANCED
MIDLEVEL SHORTWAVE MOVES THROUGH THE BASE OF THE TROUGH FROM THE
CENTRAL PLAINS INTO THE LOWER MO VALLEY VICINITY. FARTHER WEST, A
MID/UPPER-LEVEL TROUGH RELATED TO THE REMNANTS OF TROPICAL CYCLONE
MARIO WILL MOVE ACROSS PARTS OF SOUTHERN/CENTRAL CA THROUGH THE
PERIOD.
...PARTS OF THE EAST-CENTRAL AND SOUTHERN PLAINS INTO THE OZARKS AND
UPPER MIDWEST...
A WEAK SURFACE LOW IS FORECAST TO MOVE EASTWARD ACROSS EASTERN SD ON
THURSDAY. A WEAK SURFACE FRONT WILL EXTEND SOUTHWARD FROM THE LOW
ACROSS WESTERN MN/IA INTO EASTERN KS, AND THEN SOUTHWESTWARD INTO
PARTS OF OK AND THE TX PANHANDLE. THE SOUTH AND EAST EXTENT OF THIS
FRONT WILL BE INFLUENCED BY RATHER EXTENSIVE EARLY-MORNING
CONVECTION. TO THE EAST OF ANY REMNANT MORNING CONVECTION AND CLOUD
DEBRIS, MODERATE DESTABILIZATION AND STEEPENING OF LOW-LEVEL LAPSE
RATES WILL BE POSSIBLE FROM NORTHEAST OK INTO PARTS OF MO/IA.
SCATTERED STORM DEVELOPMENT IS EXPECTED DURING THE AFTERNOON.
DEEP-LAYER SHEAR WILL REMAIN RATHER WEAK, BUT A FEW WEAKLY ORGANIZED
CELLS OR CLUSTERS COULD EVOLVE AND POSE SOME THREAT OF LOCALLY
DAMAGING WIND.
FARTHER SOUTHWEST ALONG THE TRAILING PORTION OF THE FRONT,
DEEP-LAYER SHEAR WILL BE SOMEWHAT STRONGER ACROSS PARTS OF OK INTO
THE TX PANHANDLE, AS MIDLEVEL WINDS VEER TO WEST-NORTHWESTERLY.
STORM COVERAGE WITH SOUTHWEST EXTENT IS RATHER UNCERTAIN, WITH THE
PRIMARY MIDLEVEL SHORTWAVE TROUGH BECOMING INCREASINGLY REMOVED FROM
THE REGION, BUT AN ISOLATED ORGANIZED CELL OR TWO MAY EVOLVE AND
POSE SOME THREAT FOR HAIL AND/OR STRONG GUSTS.
..SOUTHWEST
INCREASING MOISTURE AND THE APPROACHING MID/UPPER-LEVEL TROUGH WILL
SUPPORT AT LEAST SCATTERED STORMS ACROSS PARTS OF SOUTHERN/CENTRAL
AZ INTO SOUTHEAST CA AND FAR SOUTHERN NV. SOME MODEST ENHANCEMENT TO
MIDLEVEL FLOW MAY OVERSPREAD THIS REGION DURING THE AFTERNOON, BUT
DEEP-LAYER SHEAR IS CURRENTLY EXPECTED TO REMAIN RATHER WEAK. AS A
RESULT, STORMS MAY REMAIN DISORGANIZED, BUT LOCALIZED DOWNBURSTS
CANNOT BE RULED OUT, ESPECIALLY WHERE STRONGER PRE-STORM HEATING
OCCURS.
..DEAN.. 09/17/2025
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