504
ACUS02 KWNS 180524
SWODY2
SPC AC 180523
DAY 2 CONVECTIVE OUTLOOK
NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK
1223 AM CDT THU SEP 18 2025
VALID 191200Z - 201200Z
..NO SEVERE THUNDERSTORM AREAS FORECAST
..SUMMARY
ORGANIZED SEVERE STORMS ARE NOT CURRENTLY EXPECTED ON FRIDAY.
..SYNOPSIS
AN UPPER SHORTWAVE TROUGH WILL MOVE ACROSS THE NORTHERN/CENTRAL
PLAINS TO THE MID/UPPER MS VALLEY ON FRIDAY. AT THE SURFACE, A WEAK
LOW OVER SOUTHWEST MN WILL LIFT NORTH THROUGH THE PERIOD, WHILE A
BROAD AREA OF WEAK LOW PRESSURE OVERSPREADS THE CENTRAL HIGH PLAINS.
LIGHT SOUTHERLY LOW-LEVEL FLOW WILL MAINTAIN MID 50S TO MID 60S F
DEWPOINTS FROM THE SOUTH-CENTRAL U.S. NORTHWARD INTO THE UPPER MS
VALLEY. POCKETS OF WEAK INSTABILITY ARE FORECAST, SUPPORTING DIURNAL
THUNDERSTORM ACTIVITY FROM THE SOUTHERN PLAINS INTO THE MID/UPPER MS
VALLEY. POOR LAPSE RATES AND GENERALLY WEAK VERTICAL SHEAR WILL
PRECLUDE SEVERE THUNDERSTORM POTENTIAL THROUGH EVENING.
AS THE UPPER SHORTWAVE TROUGH EJECTS ACROSS NE TOWARD THE MO VALLEY
OVERNIGHT, ISOLATED ELEVATED CONVECTION COULD DEVELOP OVER KS IN A
WARM ADVECTION REGIME. COOLING ALOFT WILL SUPPORT STEEPENING
MIDLEVEL LAPSE RATES. NORTHWESTERLY FLOW ALOFT WILL ALSO STRENGTHEN
ON THE BACK SIDE OF THE UPPER TROUGH. A COUPLE OF STRONG STORMS
COULD PRODUCE SUB-SEVERE HAIL.
ADDITIONAL THUNDERSTORMS ARE POSSIBLE ACROSS PARTS OF THE WEST AS AN
UPPER SHORTWAVE TROUGH MOVES NORTHWARD ACROSS CA/NV INTO OR, AN
SHORTWAVE PERTURBATIONS MIGRATE THROUGH UPPER RIDGING OVER THE FOUR
CORNERS.
..LEITMAN.. 09/18/2025
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