659
ACUS11 KWNS 240855
SWOMCD
SPC MCD 240855
TXZ000-241000-
MESOSCALE DISCUSSION 2127
NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK
0355 AM CDT WED SEP 24 2025
AREAS AFFECTED...TX CONCHO VALLEY
CONCERNING...SEVERE POTENTIAL...WATCH UNLIKELY
VALID 240855Z - 241000Z
PROBABILITY OF WATCH ISSUANCE...5 PERCENT
SUMMARY...A SHORT-DURATION SEVERE WIND/HAIL THREAT REMAINS POSSIBLE
DURING THE PRE-DAWN HOURS ACROSS THE CONCHO VALLEY.
DISCUSSION...MERGING CELLS FOSTERED UPSCALE GROWTH INTO AN ELEVATED
QLCS, WITH THE SOUTHERN PORTION SHOWING A RECENT UPTICK IN
INTENSITY. WEST-TX MESONET GUSTS HAD BEEN SUB-SEVERE (UP TO 50 MPH)
BUT NOT OPTIMALLY LOCATED UNTIL IT REACHED STERLING CITY WHERE A 78
MPH GUST WAS RECORDED. THIS RECENT UPTICK MAY BE RELATED TO THE
MERGING OF EASTWARD-MOVING CONVECTIVE OUTFLOW WITH A PRIOR
WEST-SOUTHWESTWARD GRAVITY WAVE EVIDENT IN IR IMAGERY AFTER THE
COLLAPSE OF CENTRAL TX CONVECTION EARLIER THIS MORNING.
MPAS-NSSL/GSL CAMS APPEAR TO HAVE HANDLED THE INTENSIFICATION
SCENARIO WELL, BUT BOTH SUGGEST IT WILL BE SHORT-LIVED. CONVECTION
SHOULD REMAIN DIVORCED FROM LARGER BUOYANCY ACROSS SOUTH/EAST TX AND
SOUTHWESTERLY WINDS AT 1-KM AGL ARE EXPECTED TO BECOME VEERED
THROUGH SUNRISE WITH WEAKENING LOW-LEVEL ASCENT.
..GRAMS/GLEASON.. 09/24/2025
..PLEASE SEE WWW.SPC.NOAA.GOV FOR GRAPHIC PRODUCT
ATTN...WFO...SJT...
LAT...LON 32200049 32339993 32179937 31559905 31239916 31039941
31019961 31010037 31140116 31320122 31540110 32200049
MOST PROBABLE PEAK WIND GUST...65-80 MPH
MOST PROBABLE PEAK HAIL SIZE...UP TO 1.25 IN
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