305
ACUS48 KWNS 260833
SWOD48
SPC AC 260832
DAY 4-8 CONVECTIVE OUTLOOK
NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK
0332 AM CDT FRI SEP 26 2025
VALID 291200Z - 041200Z
..DISCUSSION
IT APPEARS THAT AN AMPLIFICATION WITHIN THE WESTERLIES WILL QUICKLY
TRANSLATE INLAND OF THE NORTH AMERICAN PACIFIC COAST, ACROSS CANADA/
ADJACENT PORTIONS OF THE NORTHERN U.S INTO THE NORTHERN ATLANTIC
THROUGH THE EARLY TO MIDDLE PORTION OF NEXT WEEK. IN ITS WAKE,
MEDIUM-RANGE GUIDANCE SUGGESTS A RETURN TO A MORE ZONAL REGIME, WITH
STRONGER FLOW CONFINED TO THE NORTHERN MID-LATITUDES WHILE TROUGHING
IS MAINTAINED WITHIN WEAKER FLOW ACROSS THE GULF BASIN THROUGH
SOUTHEAST VICINITY.
THE RISK FOR ORGANIZED SEVERE CONVECTION APPEARS LOW THROUGH THE
PERIOD, WITH PERHAPS THE MOST NOTABLE CONDITIONAL SEVERE WEATHER
POTENTIAL ACCOMPANYING A PAIR OF TROPICAL CYCLONES FORMING ACROSS
PARTS OF THE SUBTROPICAL WESTERN ATLANTIC. WHILE IT CURRENTLY
APPEARS PROBABLE THAT HUMBERTO WILL TURN NORTHEASTWARD/EASTWARD WELL
OFFSHORE OF THE ATLANTIC SEABOARD, GUIDANCE CONTINUES TO INDICATE AT
LEAST SOME POSSIBILITY THAT A DEVELOPING CYCLONE TO ITS WEST COULD
APPROACH OR MIGRATE INLAND OF ATLANTIC COASTAL AREAS ANYWHERE FROM
FLORIDA TO THE CAROLINAS. HOWEVER, EVEN IF THIS OCCURS, IT IS NOT
CERTAIN THAT THIS WILL BE ACCOMPANIED BY THE INLAND ADVECTION OF A
SUFFICIENTLY MOIST/BUOYANT BOUNDARY-LAYER AIR MASS TO SUPPORT AN
APPRECIABLE RISK FOR TORNADOES.
..KERR.. 09/26/2025
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