788  
ACUS01 KWNS 261216  
SWODY1  
SPC AC 261215  
 
DAY 1 CONVECTIVE OUTLOOK  
NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK  
0715 AM CDT FRI SEP 26 2025  
 
VALID 261300Z - 271200Z  
 
...THERE IS A MARGINAL RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS OVER PARTS OF  
SOUTHEAST AND EAST-CENTRAL ARIZONA...  
   
..SUMMARY  
 
STRONG THUNDERSTORMS WITH HAIL AND MARGINALLY SEVERE GUSTS ARE  
POSSIBLE TODAY ACROSS PARTS OF SOUTHERN AND CENTRAL ARIZONA INTO FAR  
SOUTHWESTERN NEW MEXICO.  
   
..AZ  
 
MORNING WATER VAPOR LOOP SHOWS AN UPPER LOW OVER SOUTHERN CA,  
TRACKING SOUTHEASTWARD TOWARD SOUTHERN AZ. INCREASING LOW-LEVEL  
WINDS AND LARGE-SCALE LIFT ASSOCIATED WITH THIS SYSTEM WILL AID  
WIDESPREAD THUNDERSTORMS TODAY FROM SOUTHEAST INTO EAST-CENTRAL AZ.  
ALONG THE WESTERN PERIPHERY OF THIS CONVECTION, A RATHER MOIST AND  
UNSTABLE AIR MASS WILL BE PRESENT. AFTERNOON MLCAPE VALUES OVER  
2500 J/KG AND MODERATELY STEEP MID-LEVEL LAPSE RATES WILL PROMOTE  
SOME RISK OF HAIL IN THE STRONGER CELLS. STEEP LOW-LEVEL LAPSE  
RATES WILL ALSO DEVELOP IMMEDIATELY WEST OF THE PRIMARY THUNDERSTORM  
AREA, WHICH COULD RESULT IN GUSTY/DAMAGING WINDS. MOST MODEL  
GUIDANCE SUGGESTS THAT WIDESPREAD STORMS WILL PERSIST THROUGH MUCH  
OF THE DAY, WITH STEERING FLOW FROM THE SOUTHWEST LIMITING THE  
AMOUNT OF WESTWARD DEVELOPMENT INTO THE LOWER DESERTS. THEREFORE  
HAVE MAINTAINED THE ONGOING MRGL RISK, AND WILL CONTINUE TO  
RE-EVALUATE FOR A POSSIBLE UPGRADE THROUGH THE DAY.  
 
..HART/GRAMS.. 09/26/2025  
 
 
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