436
ACUS11 KWNS 261841
SWOMCD
SPC MCD 261840
AZZ000-261945-
MESOSCALE DISCUSSION 2131
NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK
0140 PM CDT FRI SEP 26 2025
AREAS AFFECTED...SOUTHERN ARIZONA
CONCERNING...SEVERE POTENTIAL...SEVERE THUNDERSTORM WATCH LIKELY
VALID 261840Z - 261945Z
PROBABILITY OF WATCH ISSUANCE...80 PERCENT
SUMMARY...THUNDERSTORMS CAPABLE OF LARGE HAIL AND DAMAGING WIND
POSSIBLE THIS AFTERNOON.
DISCUSSION...A SECONDARY WAVE OF THUNDERSTORM DEVELOPMENT IS ONGOING
ACROSS THE LOW DESERTS FROM TUSCON TO AREAS SOUTH OF THE PHOENIX
METRO. A WAVE OF EARLY AFTERNOON/MORNING CONVECTION CONTINUES OFF TO
THE NORTH OF PHOENIX, WHICH PRODUCED A FEW INSTANCES OF 1-1.75 INCH
HAIL. BEHIND THIS EARLIER WAVE, SKIES WERE PARTLY SUNNY SOUTH OF
PHOENIX WHICH ENCOURAGED AIR MASS RECOVERY, WITH TEMPERATURES
HEATING INTO THE MID 80S TO 90S AND LOW TO MID 60S DEW POINTS
YIELDING MLCAPE AROUND 1000-1500 J/KG. DEEP LAYER SHEAR AROUND 30-40
KTS FOR ORGANIZATION REMAINS IN PLACE ACROSS SOUTHERN ARIZONA. THIS
IS ALSO WELL SAMPLED BY THE 18Z SOUNDING FROM TUS IN ADDITION TO
STEEP LOW TO MID-LEVEL LAPSE RATES AROUND 7 C/KM.
AFTERNOON DEVELOPMENT MAY SUPPORT A MORE WIDESPREAD SEVERE RISK INTO
THE AFTERNOON, WITH POTENTIAL FOR LARGE HAIL AND DAMAGING WIND OWING
TO THE STEEP LAPSE RATES, AMPLE SHEAR, AND FAVORABLY UNSTABLE
PROFILES. A SEVERE THUNDERSTORM WATCH MAY BE NEEDED TO COVER THIS
THREAT IN THE COMING HOURS.
..THORNTON/MOSIER.. 09/26/2025
..PLEASE SEE WWW.SPC.NOAA.GOV FOR GRAPHIC PRODUCT
ATTN...WFO...TWC...FGZ...PSR...
LAT...LON 31901096 31861077 31781040 31791013 31870987 32010960
32260945 32630939 32820952 33491044 33891104 34161152
34301183 34321227 33941276 33621283 33411263 33331252
33061234 32761211 32271163 31901096
MOST PROBABLE PEAK TORNADO INTENSITY...UP TO 95 MPH
MOST PROBABLE PEAK WIND GUST...55-70 MPH
MOST PROBABLE PEAK HAIL SIZE...1.50-2.50 IN
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