962
ACUS48 KWNS 270845
SWOD48
SPC AC 270843
DAY 4-8 CONVECTIVE OUTLOOK
NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK
0343 AM CDT SAT SEP 27 2025
VALID 301200Z - 051200Z
..DISCUSSION
POTENTIAL TROPICAL CYCLONE NINE MAY APPROACH COASTAL SOUTH CAROLINA
EARLY IN THE PERIOD, BEFORE PROBABLY STALLING NEAR OR OFFSHORE, THEN
ACCELERATING AWAY FROM THE COAST INTO THE WESTERN ATLANTIC. THIS IS
LIKELY TO BE INFLUENCED BY SOME COMBINATION OF A LINGERING FRONTAL
ZONE NEAR THE CAROLINA COAST, AN INITIAL INCREASING PROXIMITY OF
HUMBERTO TO ITS EAST, AND COOL SURFACE RIDGING BUILDING ACROSS THE
NORTHEAST THROUGH THE LEE OF THE APPALACHIANS, IN THE WAKE OF AN
AMPLIFYING MID-LEVEL TROUGH OFF THE NORTH ATLANTIC COAST DURING THE
EARLY TO MIDDLE PORTION OF NEXT WEEK. HOWEVER, EVEN IF IT DOES
MIGRATE INLAND AT SOME POINT, AS SOME MODEL OUTPUT INDICATES IS AT
LEAST POSSIBLE, PROBABILITIES FOR THE INLAND ADVECTION OF A
SUFFICIENTLY MOIST AND BUOYANT BOUNDARY LAYER TO SUPPORT AN
APPRECIABLE RISK FOR TORNADOES STILL APPEARS LOW.
OTHERWISE, DEVELOPMENTS WITHIN THE WESTERLIES OFF THE MID-LATITUDE
PACIFIC INTO NORTH AMERICA REMAIN UNCLEAR THROUGH THE LATTER PORTION
OF THE COMING WEEK INTO NEXT WEEKEND. GUIDANCE NOW APPEARS TO
INDICATE A MORE AMPLIFIED REGIME, INCLUDING ONE OR MORE SHORT WAVE
PERTURBATIONS EMERGING FROM EVOLVING LARGE-SCALE TROUGHING ACROSS
THE WEST. HOWEVER, A SLOW TO DEVELOP MOIST RETURN FLOW OFF THE GULF
INTO THE INTERIOR U.S. MAY CONTINUE TO PRECLUDE AN APPRECIABLE RISK
FOR ORGANIZED SEVERE THUNDERSTORM DEVELOPMENT.
..KERR.. 09/27/2025
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