903
ACUS01 KWNS 282002
SWODY1
SPC AC 282000
DAY 1 CONVECTIVE OUTLOOK
NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK
0300 PM CDT SUN SEP 28 2025
VALID 282000Z - 291200Z
...THERE IS A MARGINAL RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS THIS AFTERNOON
AND EVENING FROM CENTRAL NEW MEXICO INTO FAR WEST TEXAS...
..SUMMARY
ISOLATED STRONG THUNDERSTORMS CAPABLE OF DAMAGING WINDS AND HAIL ARE
EXPECTED FROM CENTRAL NEW MEXICO INTO FAR WEST TEXAS TODAY.
..20Z UPDATE
THE FORECAST REMAINS GENERALLY ON TRACK WITH ONLY MINOR ADJUSTMENTS
TO ACCOUNT FOR ONGOING ACTIVITY. FOR ADDITIONAL INFORMATION, SEE THE
PREVIOUS FORECAST BELOW AS WELL AS MD 2135.
..WENDT.. 09/28/2025
PREV DISCUSSION
/ISSUED 1117 AM CDT SUN SEP 28 2025/
..NM/FAR WEST TX
SLOW-MOVING UPPER LOW IS FORECAST TO CONTINUE PROGRESSING
NORTHEASTWARD ACROSS THE SOUTHWEST TODAY, MOVING FROM ITS CURRENT
POSITION OVER THE LOWER CO RIVER VALLEY/SOUTHWEST AZ TO THE FOUR
CORNERS BY EARLY MONDAY. MODERATE SOUTHWESTERLY MID/UPPER LEVEL FLOW
WILL PERSIST THROUGHOUT THE EASTERN PERIPHERY OF THIS SYSTEM,
SPREADING FROM EASTERN AZ/WESTERN NM INTO THE SOUTHERN HIGH PLAINS.
MODERATE BUOYANCY IS EXPECTED TO DEVELOP THIS AFTERNOON FROM CENTRAL
NM INTO FAR WEST TX, WHERE MODEST LOW-LEVEL MOISTURE IS ANTICIPATED
BENEATH COOL MID-LEVEL TEMPERATURES. THUNDERSTORM DEVELOPMENT IS
ANTICIPATED ACROSS THE REGION THIS AFTERNOON AS LIFT ASSOCIATED WITH
THE UPPER LOW SPREADS EASTWARD. COMBINATION OF SHEAR AND BUOYANCY
SHOULD BE ADEQUATE FOR A FEW STRONGER STORMS, PARTICULARLY WITHIN
THE NARROW CORRIDOR FROM ELP (EL PASO, TX) NORTHWARD/NORTHEASTWARD
TO ONM (SOCORRO, NM). OVERALL PROFILE FAVORS HAIL AS THE PRIMARY
SEVERE RISK, ALTHOUGH A FEW STRONGER DOWNBURSTS ARE POSSIBLE AS
WELL.
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