204
ACUS48 KWNS 290830
SWOD48
SPC AC 290828
DAY 4-8 CONVECTIVE OUTLOOK
NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK
0328 AM CDT MON SEP 29 2025
VALID 021200Z - 071200Z
..DISCUSSION
LATEST MODEL OUTPUT IS NOT MUCH DIFFERENT FROM PRIOR RUNS CONCERNING
THE CONTINUATION OF GENERALLY LOW CONVECTIVE POTENTIAL ACROSS THE
U.S. INTO AND THROUGH THE MEDIUM-RANGE PERIOD. GUIDANCE CONTINUES
TO SUGGEST THAT AN INCREASINGLY AMPLIFIED REGIME ACROSS THE
MID-LATITUDE EASTERN PACIFIC INTO WESTERN NORTH AMERICA COULD LEAD
TO THE EVOLUTION OF A PROMINENT BLOCKING PATTERN LATE THIS WEEK INTO
NEXT WEEKEND. BY EARLY NEXT WEEK, THIS MAY INCLUDE A BUILDING
MID-LEVEL HIGH OVER THE NORTHEASTERN PACIFIC, NEAR THE BRITISH
COLUMBIA/PACIFIC NORTHWEST COAST, FLANKED BY A PAIR OF EVOLVING LOWS
AT SOMEWHAT LOWER LATITUDES, INCLUDING ONE OVER THE U.S.
INTERMOUNTAIN WEST. OTHERWISE, THE STRONGER WESTERLIES MAY RETREAT
TO SOMEWHAT HIGHER LATITUDES, AND MID/UPPER RIDGING MAY BUILD IN THE
SOUTHERN MID- TO SUBTROPICAL LATITUDES EAST OF THE ROCKIES AND
MEXICAN PLATEAU. SIGNIFICANT SURFACE CYCLOGENESIS STILL APPEARS
UNLIKELY TO THE EAST OF THE U.S. ROCKIES, AND LOW-LEVEL MOISTURE
RETURN OFF THE GULF BASIN MAY BE SLOW TO DEVELOP.
..KERR.. 09/29/2025
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