857
ACUS01 KWNS 291617
SWODY1
SPC AC 291615
DAY 1 CONVECTIVE OUTLOOK
NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK
1115 AM CDT MON SEP 29 2025
VALID 291630Z - 301200Z
..NO SEVERE THUNDERSTORM AREAS FORECAST
..SUMMARY
SEVERE THUNDERSTORM POTENTIAL SHOULD REMAIN LOW THROUGH TONIGHT.
..SYNOPSIS AND DISCUSSION
MODEST FLOW ALOFT AND LIMITED LARGE-SCALE ASCENT WILL EXIST TODAY
OVER MOST OF THE CONUS, WITH UPPER RIDGING REMAINING OVER THE
NORTH-CENTRAL STATES AND MIDWEST. AN UPPER TROUGH WITH ENHANCED
MID-LEVEL FLOW WILL MOVE GRADUALLY INLAND ACROSS WESTERN STATES
THROUGH THE PERIOD, WHILE MULTIPLE WEAK SHORTWAVE TROUGHS ADVANCE
NORTHEASTWARD OVER THE SOUTHERN/CENTRAL ROCKIES AND ADJACENT HIGH
PLAINS. SCATTERED TO LOCALLY NUMEROUS AFTERNOON/EVENING
THUNDERSTORMS ARE FORECAST ALONG/AHEAD OF A SURFACE COLD FRONT AS IT
MOVES INTO PARTS OF NV/ID AND VICINITY, AND ALSO OVER PORTIONS OF
THE SOUTHERN/CENTRAL ROCKIES AND HIGH PLAINS. IN BOTH REGIONS,
LIMITED LOW-LEVEL MOISTURE AND WEAK INSTABILITY (MLCAPE OF 500 J/KG
OR LESS) SHOULD PRECLUDE ORGANIZED SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS.
TROPICAL STORM IMELDA SHOULD STRENGTHEN OFF THE FL COAST TODAY, BUT
WILL REMAIN WELL OFFSHORE PER LATEST NHC FORECAST TRACK. WHILE A FEW
THUNDERSTORMS WILL BE POSSIBLE IN DISTANT OUTER RAIN BANDS FROM MUCH
OF THE FL PENINSULA NORTHWARD TO THE GA/SC/NC COAST, THE RISK OF
STRONG TO SEVERE CONVECTION IS EXPECTED TO REMAIN LOW DUE TO MODEST
LOW-LEVEL SHEAR.
..GLEASON/THORNTON.. 09/29/2025
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