842
FNUS21 KWNS 301651
FWDDY1
DAY 1 FIRE WEATHER OUTLOOK
NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK
1150 AM CDT TUE SEP 30 2025
VALID 301700Z - 011200Z
..NO CRITICAL AREAS
NO CHANGES NEEDED TO DAY 1 OUTLOOK, SEE PREVIOUS FORECAST. OVERALL
FIRE WEATHER THREAT REMAINS LIMITED ACROSS THE CONTIGUOUS U.S.
..NORTHERN HIGH PLAINS
A SURFACE LEE TROUGH ACROSS THE HIGH PLAINS OF MT AND WY WILL
CONTINUE TO SUPPORT A BROAD SWATH OF SOUTHERLY WINDS ACROSS THE
CENTRAL AND NORTHERN PLAINS TODAY, REACHING SPEEDS OF 15-20 MPH BY
AFTERNOON, ALTHOUGH SUSTAINED HIGHER DEWPOINTS AND RELATIVE HUMIDITY
SHOULD MITIGATE FIRE WEATHER THREAT. A MORE SOUTHWESTERLY WIND
COMPONENT OF UP TO 20 MPH AND ENHANCED DOWNSLOPE DRYING COULD BRING
RELATIVE HUMIDITY VALUES TO 20% THIS AFTERNOON ACROSS EASTERN WY, NE
PANHANDLE AND WESTERN SD, RESULTING IN LOCALIZED ELEVATED FIRE
WEATHER CONDITIONS. HOWEVER, RECENT PATCHY PRECIPITATION AND
MARGINAL FUEL DRYNESS SHOULD LIMIT LARGER SCALE FIRE SPREAD
POTENTIAL.
..WILLIAMS.. 09/30/2025
PREV DISCUSSION
/ISSUED 0135 AM CDT TUE SEP 30 2025/
..SYNOPSIS
FIRE WEATHER POTENTIAL IS EXPECTED TO REMAIN LIMITED FOR TODAY
ACROSS THE COUNTRY, THOUGH LOCALIZED CONCERNS MAY EMERGE ACROSS
PORTIONS OF THE NORTHERN HIGH PLAINS AND NORTHEAST.
..NORTHERN HIGH PLAINS
06Z SURFACE OBSERVATIONS SHOW A DEEPENING SURFACE LOW/LEE TROUGH
ACROSS EASTERN MT AND ALONG THE HIGH PLAINS. INCREASING
SOUTHWESTERLY FLOW ALOFT ASSOCIATED WITH THE PASSAGE OF AN UPSTREAM
PERTURBATION WILL FAVOR FURTHER DEEPENING AND STRENGTHENING
SOUTH/SOUTHWESTERLY FLOW ACROSS THE PLAINS. WHILE THE STRONGEST
WINDS ARE CURRENTLY EXPECTED EAST OF THE SURFACE TROUGH, HIGHER
MOISTURE CONTENT WILL LIMIT RH REDUCTIONS AND THE OVERALL FIRE
THREAT. TO THE WEST OF THE TROUGH - NAMELY ACROSS EASTERN WY AND
ADJACENT PORTIONS OF NE/SD - 15-20 MPH WEST/SOUTHWEST WINDS ARE
LIKELY WITH RH REDUCTIONS AS LOW AS 20%. ELEVATED FIRE WEATHER
CONDITIONS WILL LIKELY DEVELOP FOR SOME LOCATIONS, BUT RECENT MRMS
QPE SHOWS PATCHES OF WETTING RAINFALL ACROSS SOUTHEAST WY OVER THE
PAST 24 HOURS, AND ERCS REMAIN NEAR SEASONAL AVERAGES. DRY GRASSY
FUEL BEDS MAY SUPPORT SOME FIRE SPREAD, BUT THE OVERALL FUEL
LANDSCAPE DOES NOT APPEAR CONDUCIVE FOR BROADER FIRE CONCERNS.
..NORTHEAST
NORTH/NORTHWESTERLY FLOW WILL PERSIST TODAY ACROSS VT, NH, AND MUCH
OF ME. LATEST GUIDANCE SUGGESTS SUSTAINED WINDS WILL LIKELY REMAIN
IN THE MID TO UPPER TEENS, BUT SOME LOCATIONS MAY SEE WINDS ABOVE 20
MPH. AN INFLUX OF DRIER AIR WILL PROMOTE RH REDUCTIONS INTO THE
MID/UPPER 30S, BUT THE GENERAL CONSENSUS AMONG
DETERMINISTIC/ENSEMBLE SOLUTIONS IS THAT RH VALUES WILL GENERALLY
REMAIN ABOVE CRITICAL THRESHOLDS. ADDITIONALLY, FUEL GUIDANCE
SUGGESTS THAT MOST FUELS ARE NOT OVERLY RECEPTIVE, THOUGH
GRASS-DOMINANT FUEL BEDS MAY SUPPORT SPREAD AFTER SEVERAL DAYS OF
DRY CONDITIONS.
..PLEASE SEE WWW.SPC.NOAA.GOV/FIRE FOR GRAPHIC PRODUCT
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