038
ACUS48 KWNS 010851
SWOD48
SPC AC 010850
DAY 4-8 CONVECTIVE OUTLOOK
NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK
0350 AM CDT WED OCT 01 2025
VALID 041200Z - 091200Z
..DISCUSSION
DOWNSTREAM OF A BUILDING MID-LEVEL RIDGE, AND PERHAPS EVOLVING
EMBEDDED HIGH OVER THE NORTHEASTERN PACIFIC, IT APPEARS THAT
LARGE-SCALE TROUGHING WILL BE MAINTAINED ACROSS THE GREAT
BASIN/SOUTHWEST VICINITY THROUGH THIS COMING WEEKEND AND BEYOND.
HOWEVER, AN INITIALLY NOTABLE SHORT WAVE TROUGH, DIGGING INTO THE
GREAT BASIN BY LATE THIS WEEK, IS FORECAST TO ACCELERATE ACROSS AND
NORTHEAST OF THE ROCKIES, THROUGH NORTHERN ONTARIO, SATURDAY INTO
EARLY NEXT MONDAY MORNING. THE EXTENT TO WHICH IT MAINTAINS
STRENGTH AS IT EVENTUALLY CONSOLIDATES INTO MID-LEVEL TROUGHING
SHIFTING ACROSS AND EAST OF THE CANADIAN PRAIRIES, REMAINS UNCLEAR.
BUT, LATEST MEDIUM-RANGE OUTPUT APPEARS TO BE TRENDING DEEPER WITH
DEVELOPING SURFACE TROUGHING, AND PERHAPS A RELATIVELY COMPACT
EVOLVING SURFACE CYCLONE, NORTHEAST OF THE FRONT RANGE THROUGH THE
NORTHERN GREAT PLAINS/UPPER MIDWEST VICINITY.
PRECEDED BY A NORTHEASTWARD ADVECTING PLUME OF ELEVATED MIXED-LAYER
AIR, STRENGTHENING FLOW AND SHEAR COULD CONTRIBUTE TO POTENTIAL FOR
ORGANIZED SEVERE CONVECTION ACROSS PARTS OF WESTERN/CENTRAL NEBRASKA
THROUGH THE EASTERN DAKOTAS/WESTERN MINNESOTA LATE SATURDAY INTO
SATURDAY EVENING, AND PERHAPS FARTHER EAST ACROSS THE UPPER
MIDWEST/ADJACENT GREAT LAKES VICINITY ON SUNDAY. HOWEVER, THIS
THREAT STILL APPEARS LARGELY CONDITIONAL. IT WILL PROBABLY TAKE
GREATER BOUNDARY-LAYER MOISTENING THAN IS CURRENTLY SUGGESTED
POSSIBLE BY THE MEDIUM-RANGE OUTPUT TO SUPPORT MORE THAN RELATIVELY
MINOR SEVERE WEATHER POTENTIAL IN THE FORM OF A FEW STRONG GUSTS, IN
THE PRESENCE OF THERMODYNAMIC PROFILES CHARACTERIZED BY A DEEPLY
MIXED BOUNDARY LAYER WITH SIZABLE LOWER/MID-TROPOSPHERIC DEW POINT
SPREADS.
INTO THE EARLY THROUGH MIDDLE PORTION OF NEXT WEEK, THE MID/UPPER
FLOW EVOLUTION BECOMES MORE UNCLEAR, BUT GUIDANCE CONTINUES TO
INDICATE LITTLE POTENTIAL FOR ORGANIZED SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS.
..KERR.. 10/01/2025
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