597
ACUS01 KWNS 012001
SWODY1
SPC AC 011959
DAY 1 CONVECTIVE OUTLOOK
NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK
0259 PM CDT WED OCT 01 2025
VALID 012000Z - 021200Z
..NO SEVERE THUNDERSTORM AREAS FORECAST
..SUMMARY
SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS ARE NOT EXPECTED THROUGH TONIGHT.
..20Z UPDATE
ONLY MINOR CHANGES WERE MADE TO THE FORECAST WITH THIS UPDATE. THE
GENERAL THUNDERSTORM AREA ON THE EAST COAST OF FL WAS EXPANDED
SLIGHTLY NORTHWARD, GIVEN THE POTENTIAL FOR OVERNIGHT CONVECTION
AMID STRENGTHENING COASTAL CONVERGENCE AND SUFFICIENT BUOYANCY. THE
GENERAL THUNDERSTORM AREA WAS REMOVED OVER THE NORTHERN HIGH PLAINS
IN THE WAKE OF A WEAKENING LOW-TOPPED CONVECTIVE BAND.
FARTHER WEST, TRANSIENT ROTATION HAS BEEN NOTED WITH SHALLOW
UPDRAFTS OFF THE WA COAST, AIDED BY ENHANCED LOW-LEVEL HODOGRAPH
CURVATURE (SEE LGX VWP). HOWEVER, WEAK BUOYANCY OVER COASTAL AREAS
SHOULD KEEP ANY SEVERE RISK OFFSHORE.
..WEINMAN.. 10/01/2025
PREV DISCUSSION
/ISSUED 1102 AM CDT WED OCT 01 2025/
..SYNOPSIS AND DISCUSSION
ISOLATED THUNDERSTORMS MAY PERSIST THIS AFTERNOON INTO EARLY EVENING
ACROSS PARTS OF THE CENTRAL/NORTHERN PLAINS AND UPPER MIDWEST AMID
WEAK LARGE-SCALE ASCENT ASSOCIATED WITH MODEST LOW-LEVEL WARM
ADVECTION AND MULTIPLE LOW-AMPLITUDE MID-LEVEL PERTURBATIONS
SPREADING NORTHEASTWARD ACROSS THESE REGIONS. OCCASIONAL CONVECTIVE
DEVELOPMENT REACHING SUFFICIENT LEVELS FOR CHARGE SEPARATION AND
LIGHTNING GENERATION MAY ALSO OCCUR THIS AFTERNOON ACROSS PARTS OF
SOUTH FL AND THE KEYS, ALTHOUGH MID-LEVEL LAPSE RATES ARE EXPECTED
TO REMAIN VERY POOR. FINALLY, ISOLATED LIGHTING FLASHES APPEAR
POSSIBLE WITH LOW-TOPPED THUNDERSTORMS IN CLOSE PROXIMITY TO AN
UPPER LOW OFF THE COAST OF WA AND BRITISH COLUMBIA, ALTHOUGH THIS
ACTIVITY SHOULD PRIMARILY AFFECT ONLY COASTAL WA AND ADJACENT
OFFSHORE WATERS. FOR ALL AREAS OF THUNDERSTORM POTENTIAL TODAY, WEAK
INSTABILITY AND/OR SHEAR ARE EXPECTED TO PRECLUDE ORGANIZED SEVERE
THUNDERSTORMS.
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