408
ACUS48 KWNS 020848
SWOD48
SPC AC 020847
DAY 4-8 CONVECTIVE OUTLOOK
NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK
0347 AM CDT THU OCT 02 2025
VALID 051200Z - 101200Z
..DISCUSSION
MEDIUM-RANGE GUIDANCE INDICATES THAT BLOCKING WITHIN THE WESTERLIES
ACROSS THE MID-LATITUDE EASTERN PACIFIC WILL REMAIN PROMINENT INTO
THE MIDDLE TO LATTER PORTION OF NEXT WEEK. HOWEVER, ONE MID-LEVEL
HIGH FORMING OFF THE PACIFIC COAST THIS WEEKEND MAY BE RELATIVELY
SHORT-LIVED, AND SUBSEQUENT DEVELOPMENTS OFF THE PACIFIC INTO NORTH
AMERICA REMAIN UNCLEAR, BASED ON RATHER LARGE SPREAD APPARENT IN THE
MODEL OUTPUT.
EARLY IN THE PERIOD, A STILL NOTABLE, BUT PERHAPS WEAKENING,
MID-LEVEL SHORT WAVE PERTURBATION, AND ASSOCIATED COMPACT SURFACE
CYCLONE, MAY QUICKLY MIGRATE FROM THE EASTERN DAKOTAS THROUGH
NORTHWESTERN ONTARIO DURING THE DAY SUNDAY. IN THE PRESENCE OF
SEASONABLY STRONG AND SHEARED LOWER/MID-TROPOSPHERIC WIND FIELDS,
THERE APPEARS AT LEAST SOME POTENTIAL FOR RENEWED STRONG TO SEVERE
THUNDERSTORM DEVELOPMENT, MAINLY ACROSS PARTS OF NORTH CENTRAL
MINNESOTA THROUGH THE WESTERN LAKE SUPERIOR VICINITY BY SUNDAY
EVENING. HOWEVER, MOSTLY DUE TO A CONTINUING LACK OF BETTER
LOW-LEVEL MOISTURE RETURN, POTENTIAL FOR DESTABILIZATION SUPPORTIVE
OF MORE THAN A RELATIVELY ISOLATED/MARGINAL SEVERE RISK STILL SEEMS
LOW OR AT LEAST UNCERTAIN.
ELSEWHERE, THERE APPEARS AT LEAST SOME SIGNAL FOR INCREASING
CONVECTIVE POTENTIAL AHEAD OF AN AMPLIFYING SHORT WAVE TROUGH AND
ASSOCIATED COLD FRONT ADVANCING SOUTHEAST OF THE LOWER GREAT LAKES
REGION, WHICH COULD IMPACT THE NORTHEASTERN URBAN CORRIDOR BY LATE
WEDNESDAY. AT THIS POINT, THIS APPEARS MOST NOTABLE IN ECMWF/ECENS
RELATED OUTPUT, COMPARED TO OTHER MODEL OUTPUT, AT A PERIOD OF
INCREASING MODEL SPREAD AND LOW PREDICTABILITY.
..KERR.. 10/02/2025
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