487
ACUS01 KWNS 021231
SWODY1
SPC AC 021229
DAY 1 CONVECTIVE OUTLOOK
NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK
0729 AM CDT THU OCT 02 2025
VALID 021300Z - 031200Z
..NO SEVERE THUNDERSTORM AREAS FORECAST
..SUMMARY
SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS ARE NOT EXPECTED ACROSS THE CONTINENTAL U.S.
TODAY OR TONIGHT.
..SYNOPSIS
A RELATIVELY STAGNANT UPPER PATTERN PERSISTS ACROSS THE NATION
TODAY, WITH A BROAD RIDGE ACROSS MOST OF THE CENTRAL/EASTERN US.
UPPER TROUGHS WILL AFFECT THE NORTHWEST AND NORTHEAST STATES. A FEW
AREAS WILL HAVE AT LEAST LOW RISK OF THUNDERSTORMS TODAY.
..GREAT BASIN INTO NORTHERN ROCKIES
AS THE UPPER TROUGH CONTINUES TO SLOWLY BUILD INTO THE WESTERN
STATES, SUFFICIENT LOW/MIDLEVEL MOISTURE WILL BE PRESENT ALONG AND
AHEAD OF A COLD FRONT TO YIELD MARGINAL CAPE VALUES (GENERALLY BELOW
1000 J/KG). SCATTERED SHOWERS AND ISOLATED THUNDERSTORMS ARE
EXPECTED THIS AFTERNOON ALONG A CORRIDOR FROM CENTRAL CA INTO
WESTERN MT. WEAK INSTABILITY AND WEAK LOW-LEVEL WINDS SHOULD
PRECLUDE SEVERE STORMS.
..MN/WI/MI
A WEAK COLD FRONT WILL SAG SOUTHWARD INTO THE LAKE SUPERIOR REGION
LATER TODAY, AIDING IN THE DEVELOPMENT OF SCATTERED THUNDERSTORMS.
FORECAST SOUNDINGS SHOW MODEST LAPSE RATES AND MLCAPE VALUES OF
AROUND 500 J/KG. SHEAR PROFILES WOULD SUPPORT A CONDITIONAL RISK OF
ORGANIZED STORMS, BUT WEAK MOISTURE/INSTABILITY SHOULD PRECLUDE
SEVERE STORMS.
..ELSEWHERE
ELSEWHERE, SCATTERED DIURNALLY DRIVEN THUNDERSTORMS ARE EXPECTED IN
A MOIST ENVIRONMENT ACROSS THE LOWER/MID MS VALLEY, AND OVER PARTS
OF FL.
..HART/DEAN.. 10/02/2025
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