343
ACUS02 KWNS 021647
SWODY2
SPC AC 021645
DAY 2 CONVECTIVE OUTLOOK
NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK
1145 AM CDT THU OCT 02 2025
VALID 031200Z - 041200Z
...THERE IS A MARGINAL RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS ACROSS PORTIONS
OF THE NORTHERN ROCKIES INTO THE FOUR CORNERS...
..SUMMARY
ISOLATED SEVERE GUSTS AND PERHAPS A COUPLE INSTANCES OF HAIL MAY
OCCUR ACROSS THE NORTHERN ROCKIES INTO THE FOUR CORNERS TOMORROW
(FRIDAY).
..SYNOPSIS
A PRONOUNCED MID-LEVEL TROUGH WILL PROGRESS ACROSS THE INTERIOR WEST
WHILE UPPER RIDGING PERSISTS EAST OF THE ROCKIES TOMORROW (FRIDAY).
THE APPROACH OF THE UPPER TROUGH WILL ENCOURAGE SURFACE LOW
DEVELOPMENT OVER THE NORTHERN PLAINS, WITH APPRECIABLE LOW-LEVEL
MOISTURE RETURN EXPECTED ACROSS THE PLAINS AND MS VALLEY. GIVEN
LIMITED FORCING FOR ASCENT EAST OF THE ROCKIES, THUNDERSTORM
DEVELOPMENT SHOULD BE LIMITED TO THE WARM FRONT OVER THE UPPER MS
VALLEY, AND ALONG THE GULF COAST WITH LOW-LEVEL MOISTURE PIVOTING
AROUND A SURFACE HIGH ALONG THE EAST COAST. WEST OF THE ROCKIES
THOUGH, WHERE UPPER SUPPORT IS PRESENT, COOLER TEMPERATURES ALOFT
WILL PROMOTE ENOUGH BUOYANCY TO SUPPORT SCATTERED THUNDERSTORM
DEVELOPMENT. GIVEN STRONGER FLOW ALOFT AND ASSOCIATED VERTICAL WIND
SHEAR, SOME STORMS COULD BECOME STRONG AND SUSTAINED.
..PORTIONS OF THE NORTHERN ROCKIES TO THE FOUR CORNERS
SCATTERED THUNDERSTORMS WILL DEVELOP BY AFTERNOON AHEAD OF THE UPPER
TROUGH, ONCE A WELL-MIXED BOUNDARY LAYER, EXTENDING OVER 600 MB,
BECOMES ESTABLISHED. TEMPERATURES WILL WARM INTO THE 70S F, BENEATH
7-8 C/KM LAPSE RATES, RESULTING IN A FEW HUNDRED J/KG MLCAPE. THIS
BUOYANCY WILL BE CONSTRAINED TO THIN PROFILES, WHICH MAY LIMIT THE
SEVERE THREAT TO SOME DEGREE. NONETHELESS, A 50-70 KT 500 MB JET
STREAK WILL IMPINGE ON THE NORTHERN ROCKIES TO FOUR CORNERS REGIONS,
RESULTING IN ELONGATED AND MODESTLY CURVED HODOGRAPHS. HIGH-BASED,
FAST-MOVING MULTICELLS ARE THE EXPECTED MODE OF CONVECTION, WITH
STRONG WIND GUSTS LIKELY. A FEW SEVERE GUSTS MAY OCCUR, ALONG WITH
AN INSTANCE OR TWO OF HAIL, WARRANTING CATEGORY 1/MARGINAL RISK
PROBABILITIES ACROSS THE NORTHERN ROCKIES TO THE FOUR CORNERS.
..SQUITIERI.. 10/02/2025
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