157
ACUS03 KWNS 021936
SWODY3
SPC AC 021935
DAY 3 CONVECTIVE OUTLOOK
NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK
0235 PM CDT THU OCT 02 2025
VALID 041200Z - 051200Z
...THERE IS A MARGINAL RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS FOR PORTIONS OF
THE NORTHERN PLAINS...
..SUMMARY
STRONG THUNDERSTORMS MAY IMPACT A CORRIDOR ACROSS PARTS OF THE
NORTHERN GREAT PLAINS LATE SATURDAY AFTERNOON OR EVENING,
ACCOMPANIED BY AT LEAST SOME RISK FOR SEVERE WIND AND HAIL.
..SYNOPSIS
A BROAD MID-LEVEL TROUGH WILL BECOME ESTABLISHED ACROSS THE ROCKIES,
WITH UPPER RIDGING EXPECTED ALONG THE EAST COAST ON SATURDAY. A
PRONOUNCED MID-LEVEL IMPULSE WILL EJECT INTO THE NORTHERN PLAINS,
SUPPORTING RAPID SURFACE LOW DEEPENING OVER THE DAKOTAS BY
AFTERNOON. SEASONAL LOW-LEVEL MOISTURE RETURN BENEATH COOLER
TEMPERATURES ALOFT, IN TANDEM WITH FAVORABLE VERTICAL WIND SHEAR,
WILL SUPPORT SCATTERED STRONG THUNDERSTORMS ACROSS THE NORTHERN
PLAINS SATURDAY EVENING, AT LEAST A FEW OF WHICH MAY BE SEVERE.
..NORTHERN PLAINS
A SURFACE LOW WILL BECOME ESTABLISHED ACROSS THE DAKOTAS DURING THE
AFTERNOON, WITH A COLD FRONT DRAPED ACROSS THE CENTRAL/NORTHERN HIGH
PLAINS. AHEAD OF THE COLD FRONT, SURFACE TEMPERATURES SHOULD REACH
THE 80S F AMID LOW 60S F DEWPOINTS BY AFTERNOON PEAK HEATING.
1000-2000 J/KG MLCAPE (LOCALLY HIGHER IN SOME SPOTS) IS EXPECTED
GIVEN 7.5-8.5 C/KM MID-LEVEL LAPSE RATES OVERSPREADING THE NORTHERN
PLAINS. MODEST TO SUBSTANTIAL CONVECTIVE INHIBITION WILL LIKELY
INHIBIT THUNDERSTORM DEVELOPMENT OVER THE WARM SECTOR THROUGH MUCH
OF THE DAY. AS SUCH, THUNDERSTORMS WILL DEVELOP ALONG AND PERHAPS
BEHIND AN EASTWARD ADVANCING SURFACE COLD FRONT BY SUNSET, WHEN THE
PRIMARY MID-LEVEL IMPULSE EJECTS FROM THE ROCKIES. AS THIS OCCURS,
SUBSTANTIAL VEERING AND STRENGTHENING OF THE VERTICAL WIND PROFILE
IS EXPECTED, WITH 50+ KT SOUTHWESTERLY 500 MB FLOW OVERSPREADING A
30-50 KT SOUTHERLY LOW-LEVEL JET. 50 KTS OF EFFECTIVE BULK SHEAR,
MAINLY PARALLEL TO THE COLD FRONT, WILL SUPPORT LINEAR CONVECTION,
WITH AT LEAST ISOLATED SEVERE GUSTS POSSIBLE. AN INSTANCE OR TWO OF
SEVERE HAIL MAY ACCOMPANY ANY MORE DISCRETE STORMS THAT MANAGE TO
DEVELOP.
..SQUITIERI.. 10/02/2025
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