100
ACUS48 KWNS 030817
SWOD48
SPC AC 030816
DAY 4-8 CONVECTIVE OUTLOOK
NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK
0316 AM CDT FRI OCT 03 2025
VALID 061200Z - 111200Z
..DISCUSSION
A COLD FRONT IS FORECAST TO MOVE EAST ACROSS MUCH OF THE MIDWEST AND
NORTHEAST/MID-ATLANTIC VICINITY THROUGH DAY 6/WED. THIS COULD RESULT
IN INCREASING THUNDERSTORM POTENTIAL AHEAD OF THIS FEATURE GIVEN A
MOIST PREFRONTAL BOUNDARY LAYER. MOST GUIDANCE SUGGESTS INSTABILITY
WILL BE LIMITED HOWEVER, LIKELY DUE TO A COMBINATION OF WEAK LAPSE
RATES AND AREAS OF CLOUDINESS/SHOWERS AHEAD OF THE FRONT. SEVERE
THUNDERSTORM POTENTIAL APPEARS LOW.
FURTHER WEST, THE ECMWF SUITE OF GUIDANCE SUGGESTS AN UPPER
SHORTWAVE TROUGH MAY EJECT ACROSS THE CENTRAL ROCKIES INTO THE
CENTRAL PLAINS AROUND DAY 6 OR 7/WED OR THU, WITH SOME SOUTHERLY
RETURN FLOW BRINGING GULF MOISTURE NORTHWARD AHEAD OF THIS FEATURE.
HOWEVER, THE GFS SUITE OF GUIDANCE IS DELAYED WITH THIS FEATURE
UNTIL NEAR/AFTER DAY 8/FRI. THUNDERSTORM COULD INCREASE ACROSS PARTS
OF THE PLAINS LATE IN THE FORECAST PERIOD, BUT UNCERTAINTY/MODEL
SPREAD IS QUITE LARGE.
..LEITMAN.. 10/03/2025
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