873
ACUS02 KWNS 040516
SWODY2
SPC AC 040515
DAY 2 CONVECTIVE OUTLOOK
NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK
1215 AM CDT SAT OCT 04 2025
VALID 051200Z - 061200Z
...THERE IS A MARGINAL RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS ACROSS PORTIONS
OF THE CENTRAL PLAINS...
..SUMMARY
ISOLATED SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS ARE POSSIBLE OVER PORTIONS OF THE
CENTRAL PLAINS ON SUNDAY.
..PLAINS TO THE UPPER MIDWEST
A SERIES OF UPPER SHORTWAVE TROUGHS WILL MOVE ACROSS THE NORTHERN
PLAINS AND UPPER MIDWEST ON SUNDAY. THE FIRST SHORTWAVE TROUGH WILL
LIFT NORTHEAST FROM ND/MN INTO ONTARIO EARLY IN THE DAY. LINGERING
SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS BENEATH THE CORE OF THIS FEATURE ARE
POSSIBLE ACROSS PARTS OF EASTERN ND INTO NORTHERN MN DURING THE
MORNING HOURS.
DURING THE AFTERNOON/EVENING, A SECOND UPPER SHORTWAVE TROUGH WILL
DEVELOP SOUTHEAST FROM THE CANADIAN PRAIRIES INTO THE NORTHERN
PLAINS. THIS WILL SUPPORT A BELT OF ENHANCED MID/UPPER SOUTHWESTERLY
FLOW FROM THE CENTRAL HIGH PLAINS INTO THE UPPER MIDWEST. THIS BELT
OF STRONGER FLOW WILL OVERLAP A SURFACE COLD FRONT DEVELOPING
SOUTHEAST ACROSS THE CENTRAL PLAINS AND UPPER MS VALLEY DURING THE
LATE AFTERNOON INTO THE OVERNIGHT HOURS. MODESTLY SOUTHERLY
LOW-LEVEL FLOW WILL MAINTAIN MID 50S TO LOW 60S F SURFACE DEWPOINTS
AHEAD OF THE SURFACE FRONT. STEEPENING MIDLEVEL LAPSE RATES WILL
FOSTER MODEST DESTABILIZATION, WITH MLCAPE GENERALLY IN THE 500-1000
J/KG RANGE, PARTICULARLY ACROSS PARTS OF KS INTO EASTERN NE,
WEAKENING WITH NORTHEAST EXTENT. MIDLEVEL TEMPERATURES WILL BE WARM,
RESULTING IN CAPPING UNTIL LATE AFTERNOON/EVENING WHEN FORCING ALONG
THE FRONT WILL INCREASE. ISOLATED STORMS ARE EXPECTED TO DEVELOP
ACROSS PARTS OF KS INTO EASTERN NE TOWARD 00Z. SUPERCELL WIND
PROFILES WILL BE PRESENT WITH 35+ KT EFFECTIVE SHEAR MAGNITUDES
INDICATED IN FORECAST SOUNDINGS. HOWEVER, DEEP SHEAR PARALLEL TO THE
FRONT MAY RESULT IN CONVECTION BECOMING UNDERCUT/MOVING TO THE COOL
SIDE OF THE BOUNDARY WITH TIME. NEVERTHELESS, A NARROW CORRIDOR FOR
ISOLATED STRONG TO SEVERE STORMS IS EXPECTED TO DEVELOP FOR A FEW
HOURS DURING THE EVENING, MAINLY ACROSS KS INTO SOUTHEAST NE. A FEW
STRONG GUSTS AND SOME HAIL WILL BE POSSIBLE WITH THE STRONGEST
STORMS.
LIMITED INSTABILITY AND A RELATIVELY NARROW TEMPORAL/SPATIAL
CORRIDOR FOR SEVERE POTENTIAL PRECLUDES HIGHER PROBABILITIES. THE
MARGINAL RISK (LEVEL 1 OF 5) IS MAINTAINED, BUT SHIFTED SOME TO
BETTER ALIGN WITH CURRENT FORECAST POSITION OF THE SURFACE FRONT.
..LEITMAN.. 10/04/2025
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