193
FNUS21 KWNS 040644
FWDDY1
DAY 1 FIRE WEATHER OUTLOOK
NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK
0144 AM CDT SAT OCT 04 2025
VALID 041200Z - 051200Z
..SYNOPSIS
A SHORTWAVE TROUGH WILL RAPIDLY EJECT OVER THE CENTRAL ROCKIES INTO
THE NORTHERN/CENTRAL PLAINS TODAY AND TONIGHT. STRONG SOUTHWESTERLY
FLOW ALOFT WILL OVERSPREAD A DRY AND WARM AIR MASS SOUTH AND EAST OF
A DEEPENING SURFACE LOW OVER THE CENTRAL PLAINS. WARM TEMPERATURES,
STRONG SOUTHERLY WINDS AND DRY CONDITIONS WILL SUPPORT SOME ELEVATED
FIRE-WEATHER POTENTIAL.
..CENTRAL AND NORTHERN PLAINS
SOUTH OF THE INTENSIFYING SURFACE LOW AND TRAILING COLD FRONT, GUSTY
SOUTHERLY WINDS 20-30 MPH ARE LIKELY THROUGH THE AFTERNOON OVER
PORTIONS OF SD INTO NE AND NORTHERN CO. UNUSUALLY WARM TEMPERATURES
THIS AFTERNOON ALONG WITH DOWNSLOPING SHOULD BOLSTER LOW AFTERNOON
RH. THIS STRONG MIXING SHOULD LIMIT SURFACE MOISTURE WITH RH VALUES
OF 15-25% ACROSS THE CENTRAL PLAINS. AS WINDS INCREASE, CONTINUED
CURING OF FINE FUELS WILL LIKELY SUPPORT SEVERAL HOURS OF ELEVATED
FIRE-WEATHER POTENTIAL.
..MIDWEST
FARTHER EAST, DIURNAL HUMIDITY DECREASES WILL BE MORE MODEST INTO
THE MIDWEST WHERE LOW-LEVEL MOISTURE ADVECTION IS EXPECTED TO BE
STRONGER. HOWEVER, VERY DRY SURFACE CONDITIONS OVER PRECEDING WEEKS
HAVE RESULTED IN PLENTIFUL AND DRY FINE FUELS OUTSIDE OF RECENT
LOCALIZED PRECIPITATION. THE INCREASINGLY STRONG SOUTHERLY WINDS
WITH GUSTS OF 25-30 MPH WILL SUPPORT SOME ELEVATED FIRE-WEATHER
POTENTIAL THIS AFTERNOON DESPITE THE POOR OVERLAP WITH LOWER RH.
..SOUTHERN PLAINS
SOUTH OF THE SURFACE LOW, A TRAILING LEE TROUGH WILL BOLSTER SURFACE
WINDS OVER PARTS OF EASTERN CO, WESTERN KS AND THE OK/TX PANHANDLES.
WHILE FUELS HERE ARE NOT AS RECEPTIVE AND RH VALUES HIGHER, SOME
DRYING AND GUSTY WINDS AROUND 15-25 MPH ARE EXPECTED. THIS COULD
SUPPORT SOME LOCALIZED FIRE-WEATHER CONCERNS WITHIN LOCALLY DRIER
FUELS.
..LYONS.. 10/04/2025
..PLEASE SEE WWW.SPC.NOAA.GOV/FIRE FOR GRAPHIC PRODUCT
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